Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
11th · 26 pts · 23 played
DWWDL
0–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 40 pts · 23 played
WDWLD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV had 3 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 4.2 and had to travel 347 km.
Away travel347 kmRest days3 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Hamburger SV23%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen51%
Hamburger SV21%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
Hamburger SV24%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Hamburger SV18%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen59%
Hamburger SV24%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen49%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 29
Team strength
Hamburger SVBayer Leverkusen
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
79
37
AttackIn forecast
87
43
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVBayer Leverkusen
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
65%
Scored inContext
83%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.43
ShotsContext
12.96
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.48
38%
On target shareContext
35%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
64%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.47
13.43
Shots allowedContext
11.48
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.73
3.55
BlocksContext
3.00
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
64%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
401
PassesContext
615
330
Accurate passesContext
547
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.00
FoulsContext
8.78
12.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.65
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.04
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.30
ShotsContext
11.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
36%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
61%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.20
BlocksContext
3.22
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
62%
Save rateContext
85%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
402
PassesContext
648
326
Accurate passesContext
570
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.20
FoulsContext
7.70
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km828 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel347 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 347 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 828 km | 944 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
17W. Omari
16G. Gocholeishvili
20Fábio Vieira
21N. Remberg
18B. Jatta
14Rayan Philippe
11R. Königsdörffer
19D. Downs
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
25E. Palacios
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
30I. Maza
11M. Terrier
35Christian Kofane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-3
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.25
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 6–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A | L 0–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game | 40 of 69 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 3.17 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 57% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Hamburger SV | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 4.39 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.35 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.74 | |
| Match total | 4.61 | 4.87 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 13/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Hamburger SV | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.10 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.50 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 3.78
Red cards0.21league 0.16
Cards 5+59%league 39%
Fouls21.4league 20.7
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins45%league 47%
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Nov 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–12
Bayer Leverkusen1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Apr 25A · FC St. Pauli1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV23 games · scored 26 · conceded 34
2
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
7
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen23 games · scored 44 · conceded 29
8
4
0-15
8
5
16-30
11
9
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
