Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hamburger SV
16th · 18 pts · 18 played
LDLDD
2–2Full time
Bayern München
1st · 50 pts · 19 played
WWWWL
Hamburger SV8.3%fair odds 12.05
Draw14.3%fair odds 6.99
Bayern München77.4%fair odds 1.29
Expected goals0.85 – 2.79total 3.64
Likeliest score0–210.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hamburger SV ↓ · Bayern München → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.3%9.74
- 0–39.5%10.47
- 1–28.7%11.52
- 1–38.1%12.39
- 0–17.0%14.23
- 0–46.7%15.02
- 1–16.6%15.27
- 1–45.6%17.76
- 0–53.7%26.91
- 2–23.7%27.26
Winning margin
0.6%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 175.74
1.9%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 51.54
5.8%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 17.26
14.3%
Draw
fair 6.99
19.9%
Bayern München by 1
fair 5.03
21.1%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.73
36.4%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 2.75
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
30%5+
Hamburger SV goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
Bayern München goals
6%0
17%1
24%2
22%3
31%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 8.3% | 9.4% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 14.3% | 16.8% | -2.5 pp |
| Bayern München win | 77.4% | 73.8% | +3.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 62.1% | +8.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.9% | 49.3% | +4.6 pp |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 0.85 | 0.77 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.79 | 2.44 | +0.35 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hamburger SV win8.3%12.05
- Draw14.3%6.99
- Bayern München win77.4%1.29
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw22.6%4.42
- Double chance Hamburger SV or Bayern München85.7%1.17
- Double chance Bayern München or draw91.7%1.09
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV9.7%10.32
- Draw no bet Bayern München90.3%1.11
Goals
- Over 0.597.0%1.03
- Over 1.588.1%1.13
- Over 2.570.3%1.42
- Over 3.549.2%2.03
- Over 4.530.0%3.33
- Under 1.511.9%8.41
- Under 2.529.7%3.37
- Under 3.550.8%1.97
Both teams to score
- Yes53.9%1.86
- No46.1%2.17
- Yes and over 2.547.3%2.11
- Hamburger SV win and yes5.1%19.50
- Draw and yes11.3%8.82
- Bayern München win and yes37.4%2.67
Team goals
- Hamburger SV over 0.557.1%1.75
- Hamburger SV over 1.520.8%4.82
- Hamburger SV over 2.55.4%18.45
- Bayern München over 0.593.9%1.07
- Bayern München over 1.576.7%1.30
- Bayern München over 2.552.8%1.89
- Hamburger SV clean sheet6.1%16.28
- Bayern München clean sheet42.9%2.33
- Hamburger SV win to nil3.2%31.50
- Bayern München win to nil40.0%2.50
Handicap
- Hamburger SV −1.52.5%39.85
- Hamburger SV −2.50.6%175.74
- Bayern München +1.597.5%1.03
- Bayern München +2.599.4%1.01
- Bayern München −1.557.5%1.74
- Hamburger SV +1.542.5%2.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored176
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right63.1%
BTTS called right56.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 44.0% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 45.2% | 41.8% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 55.1% | 59.2% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.9% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.3% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.7% | 71.4% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 156 of 176 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5542 | 0.5511 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 42.9% |
| Favourite won | 57.7% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 156 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 176 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.