Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
16th · 18 pts · 18 played
LDLDD
2–2Full time
Bayern München
1st · 50 pts · 19 played
WWWWL
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hamburger SV. Hamburger SV had 7.9 days of rest, Bayern München 7.1 and had to travel 612 km.
Away travel612 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Hamburger SV8%
Draw14%
Bayern München77%
Hamburger SV8%
Draw16%
Bayern München77%
Hamburger SV8%
Draw14%
Bayern München78%
Hamburger SV6%
Draw11%
Bayern München83%
Hamburger SV9%
Draw17%
Bayern München74%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 97
Team strength
Hamburger SVBayern München
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
37
AttackIn forecast
96
43
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVBayern München
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.79
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.84
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
2.59
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+1.20
56%
Scored inContext
100%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
12.50
ShotsContext
18.47
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.21
39%
On target shareContext
44%
8.18
Shots in the boxContext
12.95
64%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
21%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.72
13.28
Shots allowedContext
9.16
4.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
3.59
BlocksContext
3.27
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
64%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
410
PassesContext
707
339
Accurate passesContext
638
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.20
12.33
FoulsContext
8.95
13.06
Fouls sufferedContext
8.05
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
1.74
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
2.92
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
18.70
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.80
44%
On target shareContext
47%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
13.60
69%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
19%
2.63
OffsidesContext
3.11
12.70
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.78
BlocksContext
2.57
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
56%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
412
PassesContext
716
339
Accurate passesContext
647
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.18
12.20
FoulsContext
8.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
6.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel612 km721 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Jan | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 612 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 721 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
2W. Mikelbrencis
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
18B. Jatta
20Fábio Vieira
11R. Königsdörffer
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
19A. Davies
3M. Kim
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
7S. Gnabry
42Lennart Karl
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Bayern München-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-2
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.00
Bayern München · Away
2.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-0
- Scored
- 3.56
- Conceded
- 0.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | W 6–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–4 A | W 4–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | W 5–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 3–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | W 8–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 18 of 51 · 1.06 per game | 44 of 51 · 2.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Hamburger SV wins0 draws1 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.00 – 5.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 13 Sep 2025Bayern München5–0Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 3.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.84 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 4.63 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 74% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 0% | |
| Games | 18 | 19 |
| Hamburger SV | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 5.10 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 90% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.65 | 5.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.59 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 8.24 | 9.70 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 35% 6/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 5/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 3/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.32 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.06 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 13/18 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Hamburger SV | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.13 | |
| Match total | 7.66 | 8.76 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 97 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 3.70
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.1league 21.0
Penalties0.31league 0.34
Home wins55%league 44%
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 May 22A · Hertha BSC1–00
Bayern München6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L30 Mar 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–20
- W11 Nov 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim4–21
- W5 Feb 23A · VfL Wolfsburg4–26
- W14 Aug 22H · VfL Wolfsburg2–02
- W19 Mar 22H · Union Berlin4–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV18 games · scored 17 · conceded 27
2
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Bayern München19 games · scored 72 · conceded 16
6
3
0-15
12
3
16-30
12
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
11
2
61-75
24
5
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 35 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
7
2
61-75
14
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
