Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Leeds were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Tottenham. Leeds had 6.9 days of rest, Tottenham 6.7 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days6.9 · 6.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Leeds43%
Draw26%
Tottenham32%
Leeds41%
Draw27%
Tottenham32%
Leeds42%
Draw26%
Tottenham32%
Leeds35%
Draw26%
Tottenham39%
Leeds42%
Draw27%
Tottenham31%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 88
Team strength
Leeds
Tottenham
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
69
AttackIn forecast
56
77
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsTottenham
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
50%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.33
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
29%
On target shareContext
34%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
59%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.40
BlocksContext
2.60
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
82%
Save rateContext
84%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
391
PassesContext
462
315
Accurate passesContext
393
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.50
FoulsContext
12.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
35%
On target shareContext
33%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
64%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.60
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.14
BlocksContext
3.89
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
90%
Save rateContext
74%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
505
PassesContext
414
432
Accurate passesContext
346
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.92
8.90
FoulsContext
12.60
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km280 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tottenham
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel272 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 6.7Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 280 km | 143 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 15.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
2J. Bogle
18A. Stach
4E. Ampadu
8S. Longstaff
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
11B. Aaronson
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
13I. Udogie
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
23Pedro Porro
6João Palhinha
30R. Bentancur
28W. Odobert
7X. Simons
20M. Kudus
11M. Tel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Tottenham-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Tottenham · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Wolves | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Leeds wins0 draws5 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.33 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 28 May 2023Leeds1–4Tottenham
- 12 Nov 2022Tottenham4–3Leeds
- 26 Feb 2022Leeds0–4Tottenham
- 21 Nov 2021Tottenham2–1Leeds
- 8 May 2021Leeds3–1Tottenham
- 2 Jan 2021Tottenham3–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Leeds | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 8.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 13.20 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Leeds | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 11.44 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.75
Red cards0.16league 0.15
Cards 5+39%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.0
Penalties0.16league 0.20
Home wins49%league 46%
Leeds1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Apr 25A · Luton1–12
Tottenham1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Apr 25A · Liverpool1–51
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds6 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Tottenham6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
1
2
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
61-75
4
3
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
