Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 53). Liverpool usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Liverpool had 8.8 days of rest, Burnley 9.8 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days8.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Liverpool74%
Draw17%
Burnley10%
Liverpool70%
Draw19%
Burnley11%
Liverpool73%
Draw17%
Burnley10%
Liverpool67%
Draw20%
Burnley14%
Liverpool71%
Draw18%
Burnley11%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 126
Team strength
Liverpool
Burnley
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
85
AttackIn forecast
27
84
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolBurnley
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.95
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
81%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.71
ShotsContext
8.90
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
27%
On target shareContext
34%
9.52
Shots in the boxContext
5.29
64%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.72
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.76
Shots allowedContext
16.33
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.62
3.30
BlocksContext
4.58
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.85
66%
Save rateContext
66%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
550
PassesContext
376
474
Accurate passesContext
293
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.67
9.43
FoulsContext
10.05
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
8.86
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.90
ShotsContext
10.50
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
28%
On target shareContext
31%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
61%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.56
9.80
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.00
BlocksContext
3.88
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
75%
Save rateContext
63%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
594
PassesContext
433
521
Accurate passesContext
345
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.72
7.90
FoulsContext
9.80
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,146 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel65 km715 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Jan | 9.8Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,146 km | 715 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
30J. Frimpong
8D. Szoboszlai
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
17C. Jones
7F. Wirtz
22H. Ekitiké
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
12B. Humphreys
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
23Lucas Pires
16Florentino
8L. Ugochukwu
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
10M. Edwards
27A. Broja
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Burnley-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
2.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Burnley · Away
0.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-8
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Liverpool | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Fulham | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Leeds | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Brighton | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| West Ham | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | L 1–5 A |
| Aston Villa | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Brentford | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Chelsea | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Everton | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | W 4–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 32 of 60 · 1.60 per game | 13 of 60 · 0.65 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Liverpool wins0 draws1 Burnley wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.29
Over 2.529%
Both scored14%
Clean sheets71% · 14%
- 14 Sep 2025Burnley0–1Liverpool
- 10 Feb 2024Liverpool3–1Burnley
- 26 Dec 2023Burnley0–2Liverpool
- 13 Feb 2022Burnley0–1Liverpool
- 21 Aug 2021Liverpool2–0Burnley
- 19 May 2021Burnley0–3Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.95 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.00 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 52% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 33% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Liverpool | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.95 | 9.67 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 15/20 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.19 | |
| Match total | 3.81 | 2.86 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 11/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 7/21 | 14% 3/21 | |
| Liverpool | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 9.90 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.70 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.71
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls22.9league 21.3
Penalties0.13league 0.20
Home wins47%league 45%
Liverpool15 with this referee
Record8-4-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L22 Nov 25H · Nottingham Forest0–32
- L19 May 25A · Brighton2–30
- W13 Apr 25H · West Ham2–10
- W18 Jan 25A · Brentford2–03
- D4 Dec 24A · Newcastle3–35
Burnley3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.0.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Dec 24A · Norwich2–11
- W20 Apr 24A · Sheffield Utd4–10
- D3 Mar 21H · Leicester1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool21 games · scored 32 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
9
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
12
9
76-90
Burnley21 games · scored 22 · conceded 41
2
7
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
9
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
5
61-75
8
11
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
