Premier League Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 22 · 16:30 Anfield, Liverpool
Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Manchester United 13th · 7 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel50 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Liverpool—%
Draw—%
Manchester United—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Liverpool)

Forecast from 7 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Liverpool and Manchester United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LiverpoolManchester United
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
84 Current StrengthIn forecast 77
85 AttackIn forecast 72
84 DefenceIn forecast 80
87 Form indexContext 38
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—
Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LiverpoolManchester United
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43
1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34
-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
71% Scored inContext 71%
43% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.71 ShotsContext 19.57
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
32% On target shareContext 26%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
55% Box shareContext 55%
8% ConversionContext 7%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.50
11.86 Shots allowedContext 11.00
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
3.86 BlocksContext 2.86
2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
67% Save rateContext 68%
56% PossessionIn forecast 55%
482 PassesContext 521
408 Accurate passesContext 450
85% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.90 Team ratingContext 6.84
13.86 FoulsContext 9.57
10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.43
2.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.71
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
80% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.40 ShotsContext 17.60
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
33% On target shareContext 31%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
62% Box shareContext 60%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.29
11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.20 BlocksContext 3.20
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
62% Save rateContext 69%
56% PossessionIn forecast 53%
487 PassesContext 507
417 Accurate passesContext 439
86% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.89
12.10 FoulsContext 10.00
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts
Manchester United
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel50 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Liverpool Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.1Premier League 2026-2027, 8 Nov14Premier League 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one3.13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak
Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Liverpool Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Manchester United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.67
Manchester United · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-3-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLiverpoolManchester United
Manchester City L 0–3 H L 0–1 H
Fulham D 0–0 H D 1–1 A
Ipswich W 2–0 A W 5–2 H
Points4 of 9 · 1.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

3 Liverpool wins3 draws4 Manchester United wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50 Over 2.590% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 10%
  • 3 May 2026Manchester United3–2Liverpool
  • 19 Oct 2025Liverpool1–2Manchester United
  • 5 Jan 2025Liverpool2–2Manchester United
  • 1 Sep 2024Manchester United0–3Liverpool
  • 7 Apr 2024Manchester United2–2Liverpool
  • 17 Mar 2024Manchester United4–3Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LiverpoolManchester UnitedForecast
Scored per game 1.291.43
Conceded per game 1.141.43
Match goals 2.432.86
Over 1.5 71%86%
Over 2.5 57%29%
Over 3.5 29%29%
Both teams scored 43%71%
Clean sheets 43%0%
Failed to score 29%29%
Games77
LiverpoolManchester UnitedForecast
Scored per game 1.801.70
Conceded per game 1.301.20
Match goals 3.102.90
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 60%40%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 60%50%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LiverpoolManchester UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won4.866.14
Corners conceded4.433.57
Match total9.299.719.49
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.543% 3/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.711.71
Opponent cards2.432.86
Match total5.144.574.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/729% 2/7
LiverpoolManchester UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won6.605.89
Corners conceded4.103.22
Match total10.709.119.49
Over 8.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 9.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 10.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.201.60
Opponent cards2.202.30
Match total4.403.904.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Liverpool7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Manchester United7 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester City Fulham Nov 2112:30 Bournemouth Nottingham Forest Nov 2115:00 Tottenham Ipswich Nov 2115:00 Chelsea Leeds Nov 2115:00 Aston Villa Sunderland Nov 2115:00 Coventry Crystal Palace Nov 2115:00 Newcastle Arsenal Nov 2117:30 Hull City Brighton Nov 2214:00 Liverpool Manchester United Nov 2216:30 Brentford Everton Nov 2320:00