Premier League Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel272 kmRest days13 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Chelsea—%
Draw—%
Leeds—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Leeds. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ChelseaLeeds
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 73
77 AttackIn forecast 69
74 DefenceIn forecast 77
69 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—
Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ChelseaLeeds
2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
86% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 29%
14.29 ShotsContext 12.00
5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
39% On target shareContext 33%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
63% Box shareContext 65%
17% ConversionContext 11%
1.60 OffsidesContext 2.43
12.43 Shots allowedContext 14.00
5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.67 BlocksContext 5.17
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43
73% Save rateContext 86%
47% PossessionIn forecast 47%
432 PassesContext 385
361 Accurate passesContext 302
84% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.89
9.29 FoulsContext 12.71
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.86
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.29
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
90% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.30 ShotsContext 11.50
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
40% On target shareContext 31%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
60% Box shareContext 62%
17% ConversionContext 10%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.40
12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.90
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.44 BlocksContext 4.89
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
74% Save rateContext 77%
48% PossessionIn forecast 46%
442 PassesContext 376
370 Accurate passesContext 292
84% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.92
10.50 FoulsContext 11.90
13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
Leeds
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Chelsea Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13Premier League 2026-2027, 8 Nov14.1Premier League 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways774 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.27

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Leeds Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor 18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
2.00
Leeds · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentChelseaLeeds
Brentford L 0–3 A D 1–1 H
Arsenal L 1–2 A L 1–2 A
Brighton W 4–3 H D 1–1 A
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Chelsea wins2 draws2 Leeds wins
Goals per game1.78 – 1.44 Over 2.578% Both scored56% Clean sheets33% · 22%
  • 10 Feb 2026Chelsea2–2Leeds
  • 3 Dec 2025Leeds3–1Chelsea
  • 28 Feb 2024Chelsea3–2Leeds
  • 4 Mar 2023Chelsea1–0Leeds
  • 21 Aug 2022Leeds3–0Chelsea
  • 11 May 2022Leeds0–3Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ChelseaLeedsForecast
Scored per game 2.431.29
Conceded per game 1.860.86
Match goals 4.292.14
Over 1.5 100%71%
Over 2.5 86%29%
Over 3.5 57%14%
Both teams scored 71%71%
Clean sheets 14%29%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games77
ChelseaLeedsForecast
Scored per game 2.101.10
Conceded per game 1.701.00
Match goals 3.802.10
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 80%30%
Over 3.5 40%10%
Both teams scored 80%60%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ChelseaLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won5.864.00
Corners conceded5.434.14
Match total11.298.149.49
Over 8.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 9.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 10.557% 4/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.861.86
Opponent cards3.002.43
Match total4.864.294.17
Over 3.586% 6/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/743% 3/7
ChelseaLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.10
Corners conceded5.305.70
Match total10.109.809.49
Over 8.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 9.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.601.80
Opponent cards3.102.00
Match total5.703.804.17
Over 3.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 4.570% 7/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester City Fulham Nov 2112:30 Bournemouth Nottingham Forest Nov 2115:00 Tottenham Ipswich Nov 2115:00 Chelsea Leeds Nov 2115:00 Aston Villa Sunderland Nov 2115:00 Coventry Crystal Palace Nov 2115:00 Newcastle Arsenal Nov 2117:30 Hull City Brighton Nov 2214:00 Liverpool Manchester United Nov 2216:30 Brentford Everton Nov 2320:00