Premier League Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 8 · 16:30 Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United 13th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Aston Villa. Manchester United have 4.9 days of rest, Aston Villa 4.9 and have to travel 113 km.

Away travel113 kmRest days4.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United38%
Draw24%
Aston Villa37%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.62
Manchester United39%
Draw27%
Aston Villa34%
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29
Manchester United38%
Draw24%
Aston Villa37%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.62
Manchester United31%
Draw24%
Aston Villa45%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.82
Manchester United38%
Draw25%
Aston Villa37%
Expected goals 1.54 – 1.53
Over 2.5 63% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester United and Aston Villa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester UnitedAston Villa
79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
72 AttackIn forecast 83
80 DefenceIn forecast 78
38 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack−12%
Defense risk+19%

Aston Villa

Attack−6%
Defense risk+3%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Manchester UnitedAston Villa
1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
71% Scored inContext 57%
0% Clean sheetsContext 29%
19.57 ShotsContext 11.86
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
26% On target shareContext 27%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
55% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 8%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.75
11.00 Shots allowedContext 15.86
4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
2.86 BlocksContext 3.83
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
68% Save rateContext 71%
55% PossessionIn forecast 48%
521 PassesContext 410
450 Accurate passesContext 339
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.72
9.57 FoulsContext 10.71
11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.71 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
70% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.60 ShotsContext 13.60
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
31% On target shareContext 35%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
60% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.29 OffsidesContext 1.57
11.00 Shots allowedContext 15.60
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.20 BlocksContext 4.22
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
69% Save rateContext 73%
53% PossessionIn forecast 46%
507 PassesContext 404
439 Accurate passesContext 340
87% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.91
10.00 FoulsContext 10.50
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts
Aston Villa
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel113 km2,542 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester United Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways524 km2,542 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one1412.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester United No reported absences
Aston Villa No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Manchester United+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Aston Villa+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Aston Villa · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentManchester UnitedAston Villa
Tottenham D 1–1 H W 3–2 A
Hull City L 0–2 A D 0–0 A
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Manchester United wins2 draws3 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%
  • 15 Mar 2026Manchester United3–1Aston Villa
  • 21 Dec 2025Aston Villa2–1Manchester United
  • 25 May 2025Manchester United2–0Aston Villa
  • 6 Oct 2024Aston Villa0–0Manchester United
  • 11 Feb 2024Aston Villa1–2Manchester United
  • 26 Dec 2023Manchester United3–2Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Manchester UnitedAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.431.00
Conceded per game 1.431.57
Match goals 2.862.57 3.26
Over 1.5 86%57%
Over 2.5 29%57% 63%
Over 3.5 29%43%
Both teams scored 71%43% 65%
Clean sheets 0%29%
Failed to score 29%43%
Games77
Manchester UnitedAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.701.80
Conceded per game 1.201.40
Match goals 2.903.20 3.26
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 40%70% 63%
Over 3.5 30%50%
Both teams scored 50%50% 65%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester UnitedAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.143.14
Corners conceded3.574.29
Match total9.717.439.49
Over 8.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 9.543% 3/714% 1/7
Over 10.543% 3/714% 1/7
Cards
Cards1.712.14
Opponent cards2.863.14
Match total4.575.284.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/757% 4/7
Manchester UnitedAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.00
Corners conceded3.225.00
Match total9.119.009.49
Over 8.544% 4/950% 5/10
Over 9.533% 3/930% 3/10
Over 10.533% 3/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.601.80
Opponent cards2.302.80
Match total3.904.604.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester United7 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Everton Coventry Nov 620:00 Leeds Tottenham Nov 712:30 Fulham Newcastle Nov 715:00 Arsenal Hull City Nov 715:00 Nottingham Forest Manchester City Nov 717:30 Brighton Brentford Nov 814:00 Crystal Palace Liverpool Nov 814:00 Ipswich Bournemouth Nov 814:00 Sunderland Chelsea Nov 814:00 Manchester United Aston Villa Nov 816:30