Premier League Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Nottingham Forest 19th · 5 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel253 kmRest days13 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Bournemouth—%
Draw—%
Nottingham Forest—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BournemouthNottingham Forest
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
83 AttackIn forecast 68
82 DefenceIn forecast 74
74 Form indexContext 41
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BournemouthNottingham Forest
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.85
86% Scored inContext 43%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
15.14 ShotsContext 17.14
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
34% On target shareContext 21%
9.57 Shots in the boxContext 10.43
64% Box shareContext 61%
9% ConversionContext 4%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33
9.57 Shots allowedContext 10.57
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83
2.80 BlocksContext 3.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
55% Save rateContext 68%
52% PossessionIn forecast 46%
433 PassesContext 370
351 Accurate passesContext 292
81% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.79
13.00 FoulsContext 14.14
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.66
90% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
15.80 ShotsContext 16.30
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
32% On target shareContext 25%
9.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
62% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 6%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.11
10.30 Shots allowedContext 13.60
4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
3.29 BlocksContext 4.40
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
61% Save rateContext 70%
53% PossessionIn forecast 46%
434 PassesContext 388
353 Accurate passesContext 309
81% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.81
12.20 FoulsContext 13.10
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km516 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts
Nottingham Forest
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel253 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Arsenal0–10.9 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Crystal Palace1–31.4 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Coventry0–12.1 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Aston Villa2–11.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bournemouth Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match13Premier League 2026-2027, 8 Nov13.9Premier League 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km253 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways516 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 40 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one5.16.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson
Nottingham Forest Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Arsenal (H) 0–1, 18 Oct
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo 2O. Diomande 23Jair
3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye 8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nottingham Forest Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Nottingham Forest · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBournemouthNottingham Forest
Liverpool L 0–1 H D 2–2 A
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Bournemouth wins4 draws0 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.90 Over 2.540% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%
  • 24 May 2026Nottingham Forest1–1Bournemouth
  • 26 Oct 2025Bournemouth2–0Nottingham Forest
  • 25 Jan 2025Bournemouth5–0Nottingham Forest
  • 17 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Bournemouth
  • 4 Feb 2024Bournemouth1–1Nottingham Forest
  • 23 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest2–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BournemouthNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 1.290.71
Conceded per game 1.861.29
Match goals 3.142.00
Over 1.5 86%43%
Over 2.5 57%43%
Over 3.5 43%29%
Both teams scored 71%43%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 14%57%
Games77
BournemouthNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 1.500.90
Conceded per game 1.501.40
Match goals 3.002.30
Over 1.5 90%60%
Over 2.5 60%40%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 10%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BournemouthNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won4.714.71
Corners conceded3.864.86
Match total8.579.579.49
Over 8.529% 2/743% 3/7
Over 9.529% 2/743% 3/7
Over 10.529% 2/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards3.002.29
Opponent cards1.571.71
Match total4.574.004.17
Over 3.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 4.557% 4/729% 2/7
BournemouthNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won4.604.70
Corners conceded4.604.50
Match total9.209.209.49
Over 8.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.802.00
Opponent cards1.801.50
Match total4.603.504.17
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.560% 6/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester City Fulham Nov 2112:30 Bournemouth Nottingham Forest Nov 2115:00 Tottenham Ipswich Nov 2115:00 Chelsea Leeds Nov 2115:00 Aston Villa Sunderland Nov 2115:00 Coventry Crystal Palace Nov 2115:00 Newcastle Arsenal Nov 2117:30 Hull City Brighton Nov 2214:00 Liverpool Manchester United Nov 2216:30 Brentford Everton Nov 2320:00