Premier League Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 21 · 17:30 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel398 kmRest days14.1 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Newcastle—%
Draw—%
Arsenal—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Newcastle and Arsenal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

NewcastleArsenal
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
71 Current StrengthIn forecast 94
61 AttackIn forecast 86
61 DefenceIn forecast 95
35 Form indexContext 92
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—
Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NewcastleArsenal
1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
86% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 57%
12.29 ShotsContext 12.29
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
29% On target shareContext 34%
7.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
62% Box shareContext 73%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.71 OffsidesContext 4.00
17.43 Shots allowedContext 11.14
5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
7.57 BlocksContext 3.00
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
62% Save rateContext 71%
52% PossessionIn forecast 61%
430 PassesContext 520
359 Accurate passesContext 453
84% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.75 Team ratingContext 7.06
12.14 FoulsContext 10.14
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 15.86
2.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 60%
12.40 ShotsContext 13.50
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
32% On target shareContext 34%
7.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
59% Box shareContext 71%
11% ConversionContext 12%
2.44 OffsidesContext 3.60
17.50 Shots allowedContext 10.80
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
6.90 BlocksContext 3.10
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63
68% Save rateContext 75%
53% PossessionIn forecast 57%
452 PassesContext 508
380 Accurate passesContext 441
84% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.80 Team ratingContext 7.06
11.00 FoulsContext 11.20
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
  • L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts
Arsenal
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel398 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Newcastle Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.1Premier League 2026-2027, 7 Nov14.1Premier League 2026-2027, 7 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 30 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.93.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley
7Joelinton 6Nico González
11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Newcastle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Arsenal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50
Arsenal · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentNewcastleArsenal
Aston Villa L 0–1 H W 1–0 A
Coventry L 1–4 A W 3–0 H
Leeds L 1–4 A W 2–1 H
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Newcastle wins1 draws6 Arsenal wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.20 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets40% · 50%
  • 25 Apr 2026Arsenal1–0Newcastle
  • 28 Sep 2025Newcastle1–2Arsenal
  • 18 May 2025Arsenal1–0Newcastle
  • 2 Nov 2024Newcastle1–0Arsenal
  • 24 Feb 2024Arsenal4–1Newcastle
  • 4 Nov 2023Newcastle1–0Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

NewcastleArsenalForecast
Scored per game 1.431.57
Conceded per game 2.000.71
Match goals 3.432.29
Over 1.5 86%71%
Over 2.5 71%57%
Over 3.5 57%0%
Both teams scored 71%29%
Clean sheets 14%57%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games77
NewcastleArsenalForecast
Scored per game 1.401.70
Conceded per game 1.800.60
Match goals 3.202.30
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 70%30%
Clean sheets 10%60%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

NewcastleArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won4.574.71
Corners conceded5.294.00
Match total9.868.719.49
Over 8.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.529% 2/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.711.29
Opponent cards2.143.29
Match total4.854.584.17
Over 3.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
NewcastleArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.67
Corners conceded4.604.44
Match total9.409.119.49
Over 8.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 9.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Over 10.530% 3/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.201.60
Opponent cards2.202.80
Match total4.404.404.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3 2 0-15
16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
5 2 61-75
2 5 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

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Manchester City Fulham Nov 2112:30 Bournemouth Nottingham Forest Nov 2115:00 Tottenham Ipswich Nov 2115:00 Chelsea Leeds Nov 2115:00 Aston Villa Sunderland Nov 2115:00 Coventry Crystal Palace Nov 2115:00 Newcastle Arsenal Nov 2117:30 Hull City Brighton Nov 2214:00 Liverpool Manchester United Nov 2216:30 Brentford Everton Nov 2320:00