Premier League Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 8 · 14:00 Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Liverpool are slight favourites.

Liverpool are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Liverpool. Crystal Palace have 2.8 days of rest, Liverpool 3.8 and have to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days2.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Crystal Palace28%
Draw22%
Liverpool50%
Expected goals 1.53 – 2.10
Crystal Palace29%
Draw27%
Liverpool44%
Expected goals 1.19 – 1.51
Crystal Palace28%
Draw22%
Liverpool50%
Expected goals 1.53 – 2.10
Crystal Palace21%
Draw20%
Liverpool59%
Expected goals 1.36 – 2.35
Crystal Palace28%
Draw23%
Liverpool49%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.95
Over 2.5 70% Both score 69% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Crystal Palace and Liverpool. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Crystal PalaceLiverpool
66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 84
64 AttackIn forecast 85
54 DefenceIn forecast 84
64 Form indexContext 87
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack−12%
Defense risk+23%

Liverpool

Attack+18%
Defense risk−4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Crystal PalaceLiverpool
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.55
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.26
57% Scored inContext 71%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
10.14 ShotsContext 15.71
3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
37% On target shareContext 32%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
70% Box shareContext 55%
13% ConversionContext 8%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.14
17.86 Shots allowedContext 11.86
6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43
5.29 BlocksContext 3.86
3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
61% Save rateContext 67%
43% PossessionIn forecast 56%
404 PassesContext 482
326 Accurate passesContext 408
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.90
10.00 FoulsContext 13.86
10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.57
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.89
1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.09
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.00 ShotsContext 17.40
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
36% On target shareContext 33%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
71% Box shareContext 62%
15% ConversionContext 10%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.50
16.30 Shots allowedContext 11.50
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
4.70 BlocksContext 3.20
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
63% Save rateContext 62%
45% PossessionIn forecast 56%
416 PassesContext 487
341 Accurate passesContext 417
82% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.99
10.50 FoulsContext 12.10
9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
Liverpool
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel286 km5,489 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Crystal Palace Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 23Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km5,489 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 62 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one1314.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Crystal Palace No reported absences
Liverpool No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Liverpool+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.67
Liverpool · Away 2.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentCrystal PalaceLiverpool
Nottingham Forest W 3–1 H D 2–2 H
Ipswich L 2–3 H W 2–0 A
Fulham W 3–2 A D 0–0 H
Manchester City L 1–4 H L 0–3 H
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Crystal Palace wins3 draws5 Liverpool wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 30%
  • 25 Apr 2026Liverpool3–1Crystal Palace
  • 27 Sep 2025Crystal Palace2–1Liverpool
  • 25 May 2025Liverpool1–1Crystal Palace
  • 5 Oct 2024Crystal Palace0–1Liverpool
  • 14 Apr 2024Liverpool0–1Crystal Palace
  • 9 Dec 2023Crystal Palace1–2Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Crystal PalaceLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.291.29
Conceded per game 2.431.14
Match goals 3.712.43 3.62
Over 1.5 86%71%
Over 2.5 71%57% 70%
Over 3.5 71%29%
Both teams scored 57%43% 69%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 43%29%
Games77
Crystal PalaceLiverpoolForecast
Scored per game 1.601.80
Conceded per game 2.201.30
Match goals 3.803.10 3.62
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%60% 70%
Over 3.5 70%30%
Both teams scored 60%60% 69%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Crystal PalaceLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won3.674.86
Corners conceded6.004.43
Match total9.679.299.49
Over 8.550% 3/643% 3/7
Over 9.533% 2/643% 3/7
Over 10.533% 2/643% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.432.71
Opponent cards1.572.43
Match total3.005.144.17
Over 3.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/757% 4/7
Crystal PalaceLiverpoolLeague
Corners
Corners won3.896.60
Corners conceded5.224.10
Match total9.1110.709.49
Over 8.544% 4/960% 6/10
Over 9.533% 3/960% 6/10
Over 10.533% 3/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.602.20
Opponent cards2.002.20
Match total3.604.404.17
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 5 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Liverpool7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Everton Coventry Nov 620:00 Leeds Tottenham Nov 712:30 Fulham Newcastle Nov 715:00 Arsenal Hull City Nov 715:00 Nottingham Forest Manchester City Nov 717:30 Brighton Brentford Nov 814:00 Crystal Palace Liverpool Nov 814:00 Ipswich Bournemouth Nov 814:00 Sunderland Chelsea Nov 814:00 Manchester United Aston Villa Nov 816:30