Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 56). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. Liverpool had 6 days of rest, West Ham 6.9 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Liverpool70%
Draw18%
West Ham13%
Liverpool69%
Draw19%
West Ham12%
Liverpool70%
Draw18%
West Ham12%
Liverpool62%
Draw21%
West Ham17%
Liverpool67%
Draw19%
West Ham14%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
No weather data yet
RefereeTim Robinson
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 125
Team strength
Liverpool
West Ham
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
85
AttackIn forecast
68
84
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolWest Ham
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
85%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
15.56
ShotsContext
10.52
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.96
28%
On target shareContext
34%
10.04
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
64%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.96
11.07
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.46
BlocksContext
4.48
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
66%
Save rateContext
69%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
544
PassesContext
373
468
Accurate passesContext
295
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.48
FoulsContext
11.00
10.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.04
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.90
ShotsContext
12.30
6.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
29%
On target shareContext
32%
12.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
63%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.25
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.50
BlocksContext
3.67
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
75%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
528
PassesContext
419
458
Accurate passesContext
334
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.80
FoulsContext
12.30
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km264 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 264 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
2J. Gomez
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
8D. Szoboszlai
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
7C. Summerville
27S. Magassa
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
11V. Castellanos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- West Ham+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 1.08
West Ham · Away
1.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Liverpool | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Sunderland | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Burnley | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Fulham | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Leeds | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Wolves | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Brighton | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Aston Villa | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Brentford | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Chelsea | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Everton | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 42 of 78 · 1.62 per game | 25 of 78 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
8 Liverpool wins1 draws1 West Ham wins
Goals per game2.30 – 0.90
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025West Ham0–2Liverpool
- 13 Apr 2025Liverpool2–1West Ham
- 29 Dec 2024West Ham0–5Liverpool
- 27 Apr 2024West Ham2–2Liverpool
- 24 Sep 2023Liverpool3–1West Ham
- 26 Apr 2023West Ham1–2Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.00 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 63% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 59% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 33% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Liverpool | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.70 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 5.35 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 6.15 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.50 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 21/26 | 77% 20/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 11/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 13/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 8/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Liverpool | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.22 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 12.89 | 11.10 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.70 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tim Robinson 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.39league 3.75
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 39%
Fouls22.6league 21.5
Penalties0.15league 0.22
Home wins47%league 42%
Liverpool2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Aug 24A · Ipswich2–01
- W10 Feb 24H · Burnley3–13
West Ham4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 May 25A · Ipswich3–11
- D5 Apr 25H · Bournemouth2–22
- D14 Sep 24A · Fulham1–13
- D1 Feb 24H · Bournemouth1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool27 games · scored 42 · conceded 35
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
10
5
31-45
9
5
46-60
5
6
61-75
15
12
76-90
West Ham27 games · scored 32 · conceded 49
9
7
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
9
31-45
2
9
46-60
2
11
61-75
9
11
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
7
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
6
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
