71% Home win
18% Draw
12% Away win
Our take

Lyon are clear favourites.

Lyon are the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Lyon are without T. Morton and L. Openda. Angers are without A. El Ouazzani. Lyon have 5.9 days of rest, Angers 7 and have to travel 461 km. Conditions look neutral.

Lyon71%
Draw18%
Angers12%
Expected goals 2.42 – 0.89
Lyon70%
Draw19%
Angers11%
Expected goals 2.24 – 0.80
Lyon72%
Draw17%
Angers11%
Expected goals 2.50 – 0.89
Lyon63%
Draw21%
Angers16%
Expected goals 2.15 – 1.00
Lyon71%
Draw18%
Angers12%
Expected goals 2.44 – 0.90
Over 2.5 64% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 18 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 Sun, Nov 1 · 16:15 Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu
Away travel461 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Lyon Last XI · not confirmed
vs Paris Saint Germain (A) 0–2, 26 Oct +5 more reported missing outside this XI
Angers Last XI · not confirmed
vs Lorient (H) 0–0, 25 Oct +2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lyon Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −39.6% · Defence line −12.7% of weighted minutes
  • MID T. Morton Starter 6.90
  • ATT L. Openda Starter 6.72
  • MID P. Šulc Starter 7.00
  • DEF Mohamed Ouédraogo Rotation 6.92
  • DEF N. Tagliafico Depth 6.47
  • DEF Steeve Kango Depth 6.05
Angers Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −20.1% · Defence line −1.4% of weighted minutes
  • ATT A. El Ouazzani Starter 6.84
  • MID E. Biumla Rotation 5.94
  • MID Bané Diatta Rotation 6.23
Total impact vs full squads
  • Lyon-1.5 pp
  • Draw+0.8 pp
  • Angers+0.7 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Schedule last 5 · schedule

Lyon
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,764 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 51 · 6 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • L26 OctA · Paris Saint Germain0–20.3 xPts
  • L22 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim0–31.4 xPts
  • W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel461 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • D25 OctH · Lorient0–01.1 xPts
  • L18 OctH · Marseille2–51.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Stade Brestois 291–50.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · LE Havre0–01.2 xPts

Next Matches

Match difficulty: 0–100, higher is harder. Based on current relative Elo.

Common opponents 3 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lyon Angers
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 26 Oct7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km461 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,764 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one4.17

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Head to head

Lyon Record · 8 Angers
6
75%13%13%
1
Goals2.88
Total: 23
2.13Home / Away0.75
BTTS25%
Total: 2 / 8
2Yes / No6
Over 2.563%
Total: 5 / 8
5Over / Under3

Latest H2H Matches

Rating Corners Fouls Yellow cards
5 Apr2026
Angers0.290
Lyon0.850
6.926.84
27
1213
30
19 Sep2025
Lyon1.751
Angers0.320
6.926.72
72
1510
22
17 May2025
Lyon3.812
Angers0.370
7.556.71
77
1012
12
7 Dec2024
Angers0.630
Lyon2.033
6.857.50
27
1313
02
25 Feb2023
Angers—1
Lyon—3
6.756.84
22
166
00
3 Sep2022
Lyon—5
Angers—0
7.376.38
133
59
21

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Summary uses the recorded sample above; Home / Away refers to the teams in this fixture. xG, corners, fouls and yellow cards are actual match statistics. Rating is the saved team average of player ratings weighted by minutes (0–10). Yellow cards include second yellows; missing values remain unavailable. Head-to-head is historical context, not a forecast adjustment.

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lyon and Angers. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.