Paris Saint Germain 5th · 14 pts · 7 played
26 Oct 2026
19:30
Compare
Lyon 4th · 14 pts · 7 played
Our take

Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain are without O. Dembélé and Marquinhos. Lyon are without L. Openda and P. Šulc. Paris Saint Germain have 6 days of rest, Lyon 4 and have to travel 395 km. Conditions look neutral.

Paris Saint Germain87%
Draw9%
Lyon5%
Expected goals 3.79 – 0.93
Paris Saint Germain72%
Draw18%
Lyon10%
Expected goals 2.32 – 0.77
Paris Saint Germain87%
Draw8%
Lyon5%
Expected goals 3.83 – 0.93
Paris Saint Germain81%
Draw11%
Lyon7%
Expected goals 3.38 – 1.04
Paris Saint Germain85%
Draw9%
Lyon5%
Expected goals 3.59 – 0.90
Over 2.5 85% Both score 59% Likeliest score 3–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 Mon, Oct 26 · 19:30 Parc des Princes, Paris
Away travel395 kmRest days6 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Barcelona (H) 4–2, 20 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
21L. Hernández 51W. Pacho 5Marquinhos 2A. Hakimi
8Fabián Ruiz 17Vitinha 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 10M. Dembélé 14D. Doué
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
Lyon Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (A) 0–3, 22 Oct
1D. Greif(G)
21R. Kluivert 22Clinton Mata 20F. Bacher 37Steeve Kango
2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann 99N. Nartey
11K. Nakamura 45Rémi Himbert 26K. Boudache
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −22.3% · Defence line −16.9% of weighted minutes
  • ATT O. Dembélé Core 7.43
  • DEF Marquinhos Starter 7.19
  • ATT K. Kvaratskhelia Starter 6.94
  • DEF Nuno Mendes Starter 7.12
1 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Longoni
Lyon Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −32.5% · Defence line −6.1% of weighted minutes
  • ATT L. Openda Starter 6.72
  • MID P. Šulc Starter 7.00
  • ATT K. Nakamura Rotation 6.88
  • DEF Mohamed Ouédraogo Rotation 6.92
  • DEF N. Tagliafico Rotation 6.47
  • DEF Steeve Kango Depth 6.05
1 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Hamdani
Total impact vs full squads
  • Paris Saint Germain-0.2 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • Lyon+0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Schedule last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,005 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 97 · 15 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +6.0 vs expected
  • W20 OctH · Barcelona4–21.1 xPts
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
Lyon
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel395 km973 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 67 · 9 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
  • L22 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim0–31.4 xPts
  • W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts

Next Matches

Paris Saint Germain
Lyon

Match difficulty: 0–100, higher is harder. Based on current relative Elo.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentParis Saint GermainLyon
Rennes D 2–2 A W 4–0 H
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris Saint Germain Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 20Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct4UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km395 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,005 km973 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 41 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one3.95

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Head to head

Statistics

Compare teams →
Paris Saint Germain Record · 10 Lyon
7
70%10%20%
2
Goals3.40
Total: 34
2.20Home / Away1.20
BTTS80%
Total: 8 / 10
8Yes / No2
Over 2.570%
Total: 7 / 10
7Over / Under3

Latest H2H Matches

Rating Corners Fouls Yellow cards
19 Apr2026
Paris Saint Germain2.791
Lyon0.702
6.817.31
135
108
52
9 Nov2025
Lyon0.622
Paris Saint Germain1.173
6.506.83
54
108
62
23 Feb2025
Lyon1.782
Paris Saint Germain2.463
6.737.38
54
128
11
15 Dec2024
Paris Saint Germain2.883
Lyon1.461
7.256.51
43
78
23
21 Apr2024
Paris Saint Germain—4
Lyon—1
7.496.82
410
910
00
3 Sep2023
Lyon—1
Paris Saint Germain—4
6.737.71
52
95
22

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Summary uses the recorded sample above; Home / Away refers to the teams in this fixture. xG, corners, fouls and yellow cards are actual match statistics. Rating is the saved team average of player ratings weighted by minutes (0–10). Yellow cards include second yellows; missing values remain unavailable. Head-to-head is historical context, not a forecast adjustment.

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris Saint Germain and Lyon. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking