Premier League Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 7 · 17:30 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
Nottingham Forest 19th · 5 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Manchester City are slight favourites.

Manchester City are the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 71). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest have 7.1 days of rest, Manchester City 2.9 and have to travel 93 km.

Away travel93 kmRest days7.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Nottingham Forest25%
Draw21%
Manchester City54%
Expected goals 1.49 – 2.21
Nottingham Forest25%
Draw26%
Manchester City49%
Expected goals 1.09 – 1.63
Nottingham Forest25%
Draw21%
Manchester City54%
Expected goals 1.49 – 2.21
Nottingham Forest19%
Draw19%
Manchester City62%
Expected goals 1.33 – 2.48
Nottingham Forest26%
Draw23%
Manchester City51%
Expected goals 1.38 – 1.98
Over 2.5 71% Both score 69% Likeliest score 1–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Nottingham Forest and Manchester City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Nottingham ForestManchester City
71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 91
68 AttackIn forecast 92
74 DefenceIn forecast 82
41 Form indexContext 93
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack−16%
Defense risk+46%

Manchester City

Attack+5%
Defense risk−2%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Nottingham ForestManchester City
0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.71
1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 2.20
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
-0.85 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
43% Scored inContext 100%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
17.14 ShotsContext 14.57
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29
21% On target shareContext 36%
10.43 Shots in the boxContext 10.57
61% Box shareContext 70%
4% ConversionContext 19%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.17
10.57 Shots allowedContext 11.43
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
3.00 BlocksContext 3.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
68% Save rateContext 72%
46% PossessionIn forecast 64%
370 PassesContext 635
292 Accurate passesContext 567
79% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.79 Team ratingContext 7.23
14.14 FoulsContext 10.71
11.57 Fouls sufferedContext 14.57
2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
-0.66 Goals minus xGContext +0.24
60% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.30 ShotsContext 16.50
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
25% On target shareContext 36%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
65% Box shareContext 69%
6% ConversionContext 15%
2.11 OffsidesContext 1.89
13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.20
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89
4.40 BlocksContext 2.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
70% Save rateContext 68%
46% PossessionIn forecast 62%
388 PassesContext 606
309 Accurate passesContext 541
80% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.81 Team ratingContext 7.10
13.10 FoulsContext 11.00
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km346 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Arsenal0–10.9 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Crystal Palace1–31.4 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Coventry0–12.1 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Aston Villa2–11.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts
Manchester City
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel93 km2,034 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Nottingham Forest Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 13
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct2.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km93 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways346 km2,034 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 41 / 2 / 7
Next matchdays after this one13.913.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Arsenal (H) 0–1, 18 Oct
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo 2O. Diomande 23Jair
3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye 8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap
Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Nottingham Forest No reported absences
Manchester City No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Manchester City+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.75
Manchester City · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentNottingham ForestManchester City
Crystal Palace L 1–3 A W 4–1 A
Coventry L 0–1 H W 1–0 H
Liverpool D 2–2 A W 3–0 A
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Nottingham Forest wins2 draws5 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.63 – 2.25 Over 2.550% Both scored38% Clean sheets13% · 50%
  • 4 Mar 2026Manchester City2–2Nottingham Forest
  • 27 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest1–2Manchester City
  • 8 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest1–0Manchester City
  • 4 Dec 2024Manchester City3–0Nottingham Forest
  • 28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest0–2Manchester City
  • 23 Sep 2023Manchester City2–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Nottingham ForestManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 0.712.71
Conceded per game 1.291.00
Match goals 2.003.71 3.70
Over 1.5 43%71%
Over 2.5 43%71% 71%
Over 3.5 29%43%
Both teams scored 43%57% 69%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 57%0%
Games77
Nottingham ForestManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 0.902.40
Conceded per game 1.401.30
Match goals 2.303.70 3.70
Over 1.5 60%80%
Over 2.5 40%70% 71%
Over 3.5 30%40%
Both teams scored 60%60% 69%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Nottingham ForestManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.715.57
Corners conceded4.864.14
Match total9.579.719.51
Over 8.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.543% 3/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.291.43
Opponent cards1.711.86
Match total4.003.294.18
Over 3.557% 4/729% 2/7
Over 4.529% 2/714% 1/7
Nottingham ForestManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.706.40
Corners conceded4.503.70
Match total9.2010.109.51
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 10.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total3.503.004.18
Over 3.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Everton Coventry Nov 620:00 Leeds Tottenham Nov 712:30 Fulham Newcastle Nov 715:00 Arsenal Hull City Nov 715:00 Nottingham Forest Manchester City Nov 717:30 Brighton Brentford Nov 814:00 Crystal Palace Liverpool Nov 814:00 Ipswich Bournemouth Nov 814:00 Sunderland Chelsea Nov 814:00 Manchester United Aston Villa Nov 816:30