Real Sociedad vs Lyon

UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 17:45 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 22nd · 1 pts · 2 played LD

VS— Compare

Lyon 8th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Sociedad are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad have 3.9 days of rest, Lyon 4.9 and have to travel 613 km.

Away travel613 kmRest days3.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real Sociedad46%

Draw23%

Lyon31%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.51

Real Sociedad42%

Draw27%

Lyon31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Real Sociedad46%

Draw23%

Lyon31%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.51

Real Sociedad38%

Draw24%

Lyon39%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.69

Real Sociedad46%

Draw24%

Lyon31%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.46

Over 2.5 66% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Lyon

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

62 AttackIn forecast 55

48 DefenceIn forecast 56

81 Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack+3%

Defense risk−1%

Lyon

Attack−9%

Defense risk+21%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Lyon

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.53

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

— Goals minus xGContext +0.97

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.00 ShotsContext 12.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

30% On target shareContext 58%

4.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

50% Box shareContext 79%

10% ConversionContext 21%

1.00 OffsidesContext —

13.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.50 BlocksContext 4.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

63% Save rateContext 56%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

561 PassesContext 419

469 Accurate passesContext 348

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.51 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.50 FoulsContext 8.00

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.80 ShotsContext 12.70

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89

38% On target shareContext 42%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

55% Box shareContext 72%

14% ConversionContext 15%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.57

15.80 Shots allowedContext 12.40

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.90 BlocksContext 2.30

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

70% Save rateContext 76%

50% PossessionIn forecast 52%

481 PassesContext 457

410 Accurate passesContext 389

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.40 FoulsContext 10.50

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad LWWDW

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,255 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Lyon WWLWW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel613 km1,764 km in 14d

Schedule load26%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected

W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9La Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov	4.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,255 km	1,764 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Lyon Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

40R. Descamps(G)

16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame

2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann

24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache

10P. Šulc

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad No reported absences

Lyon No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lyon+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Lyon · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	2.50	4.00	3.38
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Real Sociedad	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.00
Match goals	3.80	2.90	3.38
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	66%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	66%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.50
Corners conceded	3.50	4.50
Match total	9.50	9.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	4.00	3.00	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Real Sociedad	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	4.40
Corners conceded	4.70	6.00
Match total	11.70	10.40	9.76
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.50
Opponent cards	2.40	2.10
Match total	4.60	3.60	3.76
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.