Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon

Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 8 · 16:15 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 10th · 9 pts · 7 played WLLWD

VS— Compare

Lyon 1st · 14 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lyon are slight favourites.

Lyon are the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Stade Brestois 29. Stade Brestois 29 have 7.9 days of rest, Lyon 2.9 and have to travel 772 km.

Away travel772 kmRest days7.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3

Stade Brestois 2932%

Draw24%

Lyon44%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.73

Stade Brestois 2929%

Draw27%

Lyon45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.52

Stade Brestois 2932%

Draw24%

Lyon44%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.73

Stade Brestois 2925%

Draw23%

Lyon52%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.94

Stade Brestois 2933%

Draw24%

Lyon43%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.74

Over 2.5 62% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Lyon 5 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Lyon

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

47 AttackIn forecast 55

36 DefenceIn forecast 56

49 Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack−16%

Defense risk+21%

Lyon

Attack+4%

Defense risk+1%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Lyon

1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

2.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.69 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

86% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 43%

17.14 ShotsContext 12.29

5.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

34% On target shareContext 38%

11.29 Shots in the boxContext 8.57

63% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.20

11.71 Shots allowedContext 11.86

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14

2.57 BlocksContext 1.71

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

76% Save rateContext 79%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

408 PassesContext 468

333 Accurate passesContext 400

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.97

14.14 FoulsContext 11.00

13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 14.14

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

80% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.10 ShotsContext 12.70

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89

33% On target shareContext 42%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

64% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.57

12.30 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.30 BlocksContext 2.30

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

71% Save rateContext 76%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

414 PassesContext 457

340 Accurate passesContext 389

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.80 FoulsContext 10.50

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29 WLLWD

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km219 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected

D17 OctA · Lille1–11.0 xPts
W10 OctH · Angers5–11.9 xPts
L20 SepA · Auxerre1–21.5 xPts
L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts

Lyon WWLWW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel772 km2,017 km in 14d

Schedule load34%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected

W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 34
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 31 Oct	2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	772 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	219 km	2,017 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	13.1	13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lille (A) 1–1, 17 Oct

1E. Selvik(G)

2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 17M. Baldé

19L. Ajorque

Lyon Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

40R. Descamps(G)

16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame

2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann

24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache

10P. Šulc

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 No reported absences

Lyon No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lyon+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.33

Lyon · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Stade Brestois 29	Lyon
Auxerre	L 1–2 A	W 3–1 H
LE Havre	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Toulouse	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Stade Brestois 29 wins3 draws4 Lyon wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.50 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 20%

18 Jan 2026Lyon2–1Stade Brestois 29
2 Nov 2025Stade Brestois 290–0Lyon
2 Mar 2025Lyon2–1Stade Brestois 29
11 Jan 2025Stade Brestois 292–1Lyon
14 Apr 2024Lyon4–3Stade Brestois 29
23 Sep 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Lyon

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	1.86
Conceded per game	1.43	0.71
Match goals	3.29	2.57	3.19
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%	62%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	86%	57%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	43%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	7	7

	Stade Brestois 29	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	2.90	2.90	3.19
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	62%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	4.29
Corners conceded	4.00	6.29
Match total	8.86	10.58	9.63
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	86% 6/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.29	1.57
Opponent cards	1.71	2.14
Match total	3.00	3.71	3.47
Over 3.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	29% 2/7

	Stade Brestois 29	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.40
Corners conceded	4.60	6.00
Match total	9.30	10.40	9.63
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.40	2.10
Match total	2.40	3.60	3.47
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.