UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 20:00 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig
RB Leipzig 21st · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Manchester City 17th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Manchester City are slight favourites.

Manchester City are the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig have 4.2 days of rest, Manchester City 4.2 and have to travel 1,017 km.

Away travel1,017 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
RB Leipzig24%
Draw20%
Manchester City56%
Expected goals 1.58 – 2.43
RB Leipzig23%
Draw25%
Manchester City51%
Expected goals 1.06 – 1.69
RB Leipzig24%
Draw20%
Manchester City56%
Expected goals 1.58 – 2.43
RB Leipzig18%
Draw18%
Manchester City65%
Expected goals 1.41 – 2.72
RB Leipzig25%
Draw21%
Manchester City54%
Expected goals 1.53 – 2.30
Over 2.5 76% Both score 73% Likeliest score 1–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)

Forecast from 20 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for RB Leipzig and Manchester City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

RB LeipzigManchester City
68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 91
76 AttackIn forecast 92
53 DefenceIn forecast 82
78 Form indexContext 93
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack−29%
Defense risk+69%

Manchester City

Attack+20%
Defense risk+4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

RB LeipzigManchester City
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
— xGVia Att/Def 2.43
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09
— Goals minus xGContext -0.43
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.50 ShotsContext 23.50
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.50
30% On target shareContext 40%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 16.00
68% Box shareContext 68%
6% ConversionContext 9%
— OffsidesContext 1.50
11.50 Shots allowedContext 10.00
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
1.50 BlocksContext 1.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext —
64% Save rateContext 60%
47% PossessionIn forecast 59%
414 PassesContext 566
361 Accurate passesContext 506
87% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.89
11.00 FoulsContext 13.50
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.92 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.24
90% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.40 ShotsContext 16.50
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
36% On target shareContext 36%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
69% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 15%
1.29 OffsidesContext 1.89
14.20 Shots allowedContext 11.20
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89
3.00 BlocksContext 2.50
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
69% Save rateContext 68%
54% PossessionIn forecast 62%
508 PassesContext 606
443 Accurate passesContext 541
87% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.97 Team ratingContext 7.10
9.30 FoulsContext 11.00
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km732 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts
Manchester City
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,017 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RB Leipzig Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,017 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways732 km227 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one2.82.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RB Leipzig No reported absences
Manchester City No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Manchester City+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00
Manchester City · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 RB Leipzig wins0 draws3 Manchester City wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.25 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 28 Nov 2023Manchester City3–2RB Leipzig
  • 4 Oct 2023RB Leipzig1–3Manchester City
  • 7 Dec 2021RB Leipzig2–1Manchester City
  • 15 Sep 2021Manchester City6–3RB Leipzig

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

RB LeipzigManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 1.002.00
Conceded per game 2.002.00
Match goals 3.004.00 4.01
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 76%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%50% 73%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
RB LeipzigManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 2.102.40
Conceded per game 2.001.30
Match goals 4.103.70 4.01
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%70% 76%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 50%60% 73%
Clean sheets 40%40%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RB LeipzigManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won5.008.00
Corners conceded5.002.00
Match total10.0010.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.002.00
Opponent cards2.001.00
Match total4.003.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
RB LeipzigManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.806.40
Corners conceded5.703.70
Match total10.5010.109.71
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 10.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.301.50
Opponent cards1.301.50
Match total2.603.003.80
Over 3.530% 3/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

RB Leipzig2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Manchester City2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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