UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 20:00 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
1899 Hoffenheim 30th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Lyon 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

Lyon are the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 49). 1899 Hoffenheim have 4.1 days of rest, Lyon 4 and have to travel 486 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel486 kmRest days4.1 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3
1899 Hoffenheim39%
Draw24%
Lyon37%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.63
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Draw27%
Lyon36%
Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33
1899 Hoffenheim39%
Draw24%
Lyon37%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.63
1899 Hoffenheim31%
Draw24%
Lyon45%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.83
1899 Hoffenheim38%
Draw25%
Lyon37%
Expected goals 1.59 – 1.56
Over 2.5 64% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sinsheim)
10°COvercast
  • Precipitation 14%
  • Wind 4 km/h
  • Humidity 84%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for 1899 Hoffenheim and Lyon. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

1899 HoffenheimLyon
49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60
49 Current StrengthIn forecast 60
46 AttackIn forecast 55
43 DefenceIn forecast 56
15 Form indexContext 85
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack−4%
Defense risk−3%

Lyon

Attack−2%
Defense risk+7%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

1899 HoffenheimLyon
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.53
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
— Goals minus xGContext +0.97
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.00 ShotsContext 12.00
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
24% On target shareContext 58%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
66% Box shareContext 79%
6% ConversionContext 21%
— OffsidesContext —
14.00 Shots allowedContext 12.50
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
4.50 BlocksContext 4.00
1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
38% Save rateContext 56%
60% PossessionIn forecast 47%
506 PassesContext 419
418 Accurate passesContext 348
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.39 Team ratingContext 6.88
20.50 FoulsContext 8.00
8.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
3.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.58
80% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.60 ShotsContext 12.70
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89
28% On target shareContext 42%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
62% Box shareContext 72%
8% ConversionContext 15%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.57
12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.40
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
4.10 BlocksContext 2.30
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
50% Save rateContext 76%
59% PossessionIn forecast 52%
515 PassesContext 457
426 Accurate passesContext 389
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.95
14.00 FoulsContext 10.50
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km552 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
Lyon
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel486 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
1899 Hoffenheim Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 18 Oct4Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km486 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways552 km1,084 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 31 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2.83

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
Lyon Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame
2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann
24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache
10P. Šulc

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
1899 Hoffenheim No reported absences
Lyon No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • 1899 Hoffenheim+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Lyon+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.00
Lyon · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws0 Lyon wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 7 Nov 20241899 Hoffenheim2–2Lyon

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

1899 HoffenheimLyonForecast
Scored per game 1.002.50
Conceded per game 2.501.50
Match goals 3.504.00 3.31
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100% 64%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%100% 66%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
1899 HoffenheimLyonForecast
Scored per game 1.401.90
Conceded per game 2.301.00
Match goals 3.702.90 3.31
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%70% 64%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 70%70% 66%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

1899 HoffenheimLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won7.504.50
Corners conceded4.504.50
Match total12.009.009.76
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards3.501.50
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total5.003.003.76
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.5100% 2/20% 0/2
1899 HoffenheimLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won7.104.40
Corners conceded4.206.00
Match total11.3010.409.76
Over 8.5100% 10/1080% 8/10
Over 9.590% 9/1080% 8/10
Over 10.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.701.50
Opponent cards1.402.10
Match total4.103.603.76
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

1899 Hoffenheim2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Lyon2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
2 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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