UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
Atletico Madrid 15th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Bayern München 10th · 4 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bayern München are slight favourites.

Bayern München are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 81). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Atletico Madrid. Atletico Madrid have 3.3 days of rest, Bayern München 3.1 and have to travel 1,484 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,484 kmRest days3.3 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Atletico Madrid29%
Draw22%
Bayern München49%
Expected goals 1.55 – 2.07
Atletico Madrid26%
Draw26%
Bayern München47%
Expected goals 1.13 – 1.59
Atletico Madrid29%
Draw22%
Bayern München49%
Expected goals 1.55 – 2.07
Atletico Madrid22%
Draw20%
Bayern München58%
Expected goals 1.39 – 2.32
Atletico Madrid29%
Draw23%
Bayern München48%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.90
Over 2.5 70% Both score 69% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
15°CClear
  • Precipitation 23%
  • Wind 6 km/h
  • Humidity 32%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Atletico Madrid and Bayern München. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Atletico MadridBayern München
81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94
81 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
82 AttackIn forecast 96
87 DefenceIn forecast 90
96 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack−34%
Defense risk+111%

Bayern München

Attack−33%
Defense risk+36%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Atletico MadridBayern München
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.21 xGVia Att/Def —
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.29 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
9.00 ShotsContext 24.00
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.00
39% On target shareContext 42%
5.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
49% Box shareContext 57%
17% ConversionContext 17%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.50
10.50 Shots allowedContext 5.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
2.50 BlocksContext —
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —
75% Save rateContext 25%
57% PossessionIn forecast 66%
545 PassesContext 609
472 Accurate passesContext 556
87% Pass accuracyContext 91%
7.01 Team ratingContext 7.06
10.50 FoulsContext 6.50
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 3.27
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
90% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.10 ShotsContext 22.80
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80
37% On target shareContext 43%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.40
58% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 16%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.90
10.20 Shots allowedContext 8.10
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
2.90 BlocksContext 3.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
71% Save rateContext 70%
60% PossessionIn forecast 68%
588 PassesContext 693
517 Accurate passesContext 625
88% Pass accuracyContext 90%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.30
11.30 FoulsContext 8.60
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts
Bayern München
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,484 km554 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Atletico Madrid Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.3La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct3.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,484 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways604 km554 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one53.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David
Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Atletico Madrid No reported absences
Bayern München No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Bayern München+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Bayern München · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Atletico MadridBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.504.00
Conceded per game 1.001.50
Match goals 2.505.50 3.63
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100% 70%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 50%50% 69%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Atletico MadridBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 2.003.60
Conceded per game 1.000.90
Match goals 3.004.50 3.63
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%80% 70%
Over 3.5 30%70%
Both teams scored 50%60% 69%
Clean sheets 40%40%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Atletico MadridBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.5010.50
Corners conceded5.003.50
Match total8.5014.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total3.004.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Atletico MadridBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.008.44
Corners conceded4.253.78
Match total9.2512.229.71
Over 8.550% 4/8100% 9/9
Over 9.550% 4/878% 7/9
Over 10.550% 4/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.201.00
Opponent cards1.701.90
Match total3.902.903.80
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Atletico Madrid2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Bayern München2 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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