Lyon vs Celta Vigo – 19 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 19 · 17:45 Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu

Lyon 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

First leg1–1 0–2Full time

Celta Vigo 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Celta Vigo. Lyon had 4.1 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4 and had to travel 1,161 km.

Away travel1,161 kmRest days4.1 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3

Lyon34%

Draw29%

Celta Vigo37%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.22

Lyon42%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Lyon34%

Draw29%

Celta Vigo37%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.24

Lyon28%

Draw29%

Celta Vigo44%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.37

Lyon33%

Draw30%

Celta Vigo37%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.18

Over 2.5 43% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Décines-Charpieu)

No weather data yet

RefereeIrfan Peljto

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.55
Matches 40

Team strength

Lyon

Celta Vigo

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

60 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

55 AttackIn forecast 36

56 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lyon

Celta Vigo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.69

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 10.20

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

41% On target shareContext 42%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

68% Box shareContext 65%

16% ConversionContext 13%

2.43 OffsidesContext 3.14

11.40 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

3.00 BlocksContext 3.89

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

72% Save rateContext 71%

55% PossessionIn forecast 49%

495 PassesContext 481

430 Accurate passesContext 419

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.60 FoulsContext 10.20

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lyon

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,424 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,161 km1,176 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lyon	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar	4La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,161 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,424 km	1,176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lyon Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1D. Greif(G)

16Abner 3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 60Steeve Kango

99N. Nartey 23T. Morton 8C. Tolisso

77R. Yaremchuk 9Endrick

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13I. Radu(G)

5Sergio Carreira 20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

6I. Moriba 15M. Vecino 30Fer López

19W. Swedberg 18Pablo Durán 17Javi Rueda

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lyon Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lyon-0.2 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Celta Vigo-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Lyon · Home No home games yet this season.

Celta Vigo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Lyon wins1 draws0 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

12 Mar 2026Celta Vigo1–1Lyon

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lyon	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.39
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	43%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lyon	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.30
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.30	2.39
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	43%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	49%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lyon	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	2.00	5.00
Opponent cards	5.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	7.00	3.88
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Lyon	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.33
Corners conceded	4.44	4.11
Match total	8.22	8.44	8.50
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.40	1.90
Match total	4.40	3.80	3.88
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Irfan Peljto 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.60league 3.89

Red cards0.23league 0.33

Cards 5+40%league 56%

Fouls21.9league 25.8

Penalties0.55league 0.11

Home wins50%league 44%

Lyon

No previous matches with this referee.

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.