Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 82). Manchester City had 2.9 days of rest, Chelsea 4.9 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days2.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester City58%
Draw22%
Chelsea20%
Manchester City55%
Draw24%
Chelsea21%
Manchester City57%
Draw22%
Chelsea20%
Manchester City50%
Draw24%
Chelsea26%
Manchester City56%
Draw24%
Chelsea20%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 199
Team strength
Manchester City
Chelsea
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
92
AttackIn forecast
77
82
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisChelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityChelsea
2.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
84%
Scored inContext
89%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
14.21
ShotsContext
14.21
5.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.84
38%
On target shareContext
34%
10.53
Shots in the boxContext
9.53
74%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.54
OffsidesContext
2.17
9.42
Shots allowedContext
10.53
3.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
2.89
BlocksContext
2.71
2.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
73%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
568
PassesContext
523
500
Accurate passesContext
451
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.11
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.74
FoulsContext
11.63
10.58
Fouls sufferedContext
12.37
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.16
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.60
ShotsContext
13.60
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
29%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
79%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.60
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.44
BlocksContext
2.78
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
66%
Save rateContext
72%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
580
PassesContext
501
513
Accurate passesContext
430
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.30
FoulsContext
12.40
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km522 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Chelsea
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Jan | 4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 522 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
24J. Gvardiol
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
4T. Reijnders
47P. Foden
10M. Cherki
20Bernardo Silva
9E. Haaland
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
12F. Jørgensen(G)
27M. Gusto
5B. Badiashile
23T. Chalobah
34J. Acheampong
8E. Fernández
24R. James
7Pedro Neto
10C. Palmer
41Estêvão
20João Pedro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Chelsea
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Chelsea-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-0-1
- Scored
- 2.78
- Conceded
- 0.67
Chelsea · Away
1.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-2
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 5–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Fulham | W 5–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Leeds | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Liverpool | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Manchester United | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Wolves | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 41 of 57 · 2.16 per game | 30 of 57 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Manchester City wins2 draws1 Chelsea wins
Goals per game1.60 – 0.80
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2025Manchester City3–1Chelsea
- 18 Aug 2024Chelsea0–2Manchester City
- 20 Apr 2024Manchester City1–0Chelsea
- 17 Feb 2024Manchester City1–1Chelsea
- 12 Nov 2023Chelsea4–4Manchester City
- 21 May 2023Manchester City1–0Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.26 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 3.16 | 2.79 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 63% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 58% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 11% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.50 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 10.39 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 13/18 | 83% 15/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 8/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.26 | 4.63 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 9/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 5/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.76 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.20 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 199 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.66
Red cards0.14league 0.10
Cards 5+33%league 37%
Fouls22.4league 21.3
Penalties0.27league 0.20
Home wins42%league 46%
Manchester City24 with this referee
Record18-2-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 7
- L26 Oct 25A · Aston Villa0–14
- W29 Dec 24A · Leicester2–01
- W4 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest3–02
- L2 Nov 24A · Bournemouth1–21
- D22 Sep 24H · Arsenal2–23
Chelsea20 with this referee
Record7-5-8
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 1
- D6 Dec 25A · Bournemouth0–02
- W22 Aug 25A · West Ham5–11
- D6 Apr 25A · Brentford0–03
- L22 Feb 25A · Aston Villa1–23
- D10 Nov 24H · Arsenal1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City19 games · scored 43 · conceded 17
5
0-15
5
2
16-30
11
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
10
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
Chelsea19 games · scored 32 · conceded 21
4
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
9
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
8
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
