Manchester City vs Newcastle – 21 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 27 Sat, Feb 21 · 20:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 2nd · 53 pts · 26 played LWDWW

2–1Full time

Newcastle 10th · 36 pts · 26 played DLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester City were slight favourites.

Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 80). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Newcastle. Manchester City had 10 days of rest, Newcastle 11 and had to travel 171 km.

Away travel171 kmRest days10 · 11Matches / 14d2 · 1

Manchester City56%

Draw21%

Newcastle23%

Expected goals 2.20 – 1.39

Manchester City55%

Draw25%

Newcastle21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Manchester City54%

Draw22%

Newcastle24%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.40

Manchester City47%

Draw23%

Newcastle30%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.56

Manchester City53%

Draw23%

Newcastle24%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.26

Over 2.5 70% Both score 67% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 102

Team strength

Manchester City

Newcastle

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

92 AttackIn forecast 61

82 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Newcastle

2.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.42

0.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

85% Scored inContext 73%

42% Clean sheetsContext 27%

14.19 ShotsContext 13.23

5.08 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.54

36% On target shareContext 34%

10.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.73

73% Box shareContext 64%

15% ConversionContext 11%

1.68 OffsidesContext 2.06

9.85 Shots allowedContext 11.27

3.42 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.04

2.92 BlocksContext 3.70

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

73% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 53%

574 PassesContext 454

507 Accurate passesContext 380

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.12 FoulsContext 9.76

11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 11.92

1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 2.24

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.80 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.60 ShotsContext 15.60

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

34% On target shareContext 35%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.70

69% Box shareContext 74%

16% ConversionContext 14%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.89

9.60 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

2.50 BlocksContext 3.50

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

68% Save rateContext 68%

61% PossessionIn forecast 54%

610 PassesContext 473

546 Accurate passesContext 399

90% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.10 FoulsContext 8.60

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest11 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel171 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb	11Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	796 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-1-3-2

25G. Donnarumma(G)

21R. Aït-Nouri 15A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes

16Rodri

33N. O'Reilly 20Bernardo Silva 42A. Semenyo

7O. Marmoush 9E. Haaland

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 33D. Burn 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

28J. Willock 8S. Tonali 41J. Ramsey

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 20A. Elanga

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Manchester City+1.5 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Newcastle-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 2.46points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 10-2-1
Scored: 2.46
Conceded: 0.62

Newcastle · Away 1.00points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.31

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Manchester City	Newcastle
Fulham	W 3–0 HW 5–4 A	W 2–1 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 AW 3–0 H	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Wolves	W 2–0 HW 4–0 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Manchester United	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 0–1 A
Brighton	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 A
Chelsea	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Sunderland	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	L 0–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 H
West Ham	W 3–0 H	L 1–3 A
Crystal Palace	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 H
Leeds	W 3–2 H	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Bournemouth	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 A
Aston Villa	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Everton	W 2–0 H	W 4–1 A
Brentford	W 1–0 A	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A
Burnley	W 5–1 H	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
Arsenal	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	53 of 75 · 2.12 per game	33 of 75 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

7 Manchester City wins2 draws1 Newcastle wins

Goals per game2.60 – 0.80 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 0%

22 Nov 2025Newcastle2–1Manchester City
15 Feb 2025Manchester City4–0Newcastle
28 Sep 2024Newcastle1–1Manchester City
16 Mar 2024Manchester City2–0Newcastle
13 Jan 2024Newcastle2–3Manchester City
19 Aug 2023Manchester City1–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	2.08	1.42
Conceded per game	0.92	1.42
Match goals	3.00	2.85	3.59
Over 1.5	88%	73%
Over 2.5	62%	62%	70%
Over 3.5	23%	38%
Both teams scored	46%	62%	67%
Clean sheets	42%	27%
Failed to score	15%	27%
Games	26	26

	Manchester City	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.60
Conceded per game	0.80	1.70
Match goals	2.40	3.30	3.59
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	70%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	67%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	6.92
Corners conceded	3.96	5.08
Match total	9.36	12.00	9.99
Over 8.5	64% 16/25	81% 21/26
Over 9.5	44% 11/25	69% 18/26
Over 10.5	32% 8/25	62% 16/26
Cards
Cards	1.88	1.58
Opponent cards	2.00	2.35
Match total	3.88	3.93	3.87
Over 3.5	62% 16/26	54% 14/26
Over 4.5	38% 10/26	31% 8/26

	Manchester City	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	7.00
Corners conceded	3.20	4.40
Match total	8.80	11.40	9.99
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	2.10
Match total	4.40	3.90	3.87
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 102 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.72

Red cards0.14league 0.12

Cards 5+39%league 38%

Fouls22.0league 21.3

Penalties0.20league 0.22

Home wins47%league 42%

Manchester City2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 5.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D7 Jan 26H · Brighton1–11
W20 May 25H · Bournemouth3–12

Newcastle6 with this referee

Record2-3-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.2 Pens for · against3 · 1

D10 Jan 26H · Bournemouth2–21
D2 Dec 25H · Tottenham2–20
W14 Dec 24H · Leicester4–03
L24 Apr 24A · Crystal Palace0–23
D3 Feb 24H · Luton4–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.