Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 44). Manchester City usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Manchester City had 7.1 days of rest, Wolves 6 and had to travel 100 km.
Away travel100 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester City77%
Draw15%
Wolves8%
Manchester City75%
Draw16%
Wolves9%
Manchester City78%
Draw15%
Wolves8%
Manchester City71%
Draw18%
Wolves12%
Manchester City75%
Draw16%
Wolves9%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeFarai Hallam
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.07
- Matches 27
Team strength
Manchester City
Wolves
87
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
92
AttackIn forecast
41
82
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityWolves
2.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.68
0.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
82%
Scored inContext
50%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
14.23
ShotsContext
8.91
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
36%
On target shareContext
35%
10.64
Shots in the boxContext
6.05
74%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.80
9.27
Shots allowedContext
13.27
3.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
2.70
BlocksContext
4.58
2.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
72%
Save rateContext
62%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
573
PassesContext
380
504
Accurate passesContext
304
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.59
FoulsContext
14.14
11.09
Fouls sufferedContext
9.82
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.50
ShotsContext
9.70
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
39%
On target shareContext
40%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
74%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
1.30
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
2.75
BlocksContext
4.63
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
73%
Save rateContext
63%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
627
PassesContext
377
559
Accurate passesContext
305
89%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.00
FoulsContext
13.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Wolves
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel100 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 100 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
10M. Cherki
20Bernardo Silva
4T. Reijnders
42A. Semenyo
7O. Marmoush
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
15Y. Mosquera
3Hugo Bueno
10J. Arias
7André
8João Gomes
38J. Tchatchoua
11H. Hwang
36Mateus Mané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Wolves+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-1
- Scored
- 2.45
- Conceded
- 0.73
Wolves · Away
0.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-8
- Scored
- 0.45
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Fulham | W 5–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| Leeds | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 40 of 63 · 1.90 per game | 8 of 63 · 0.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
9 Manchester City wins0 draws1 Wolves wins
Goals per game2.90 – 0.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025Wolves0–4Manchester City
- 2 May 2025Manchester City1–0Wolves
- 20 Oct 2024Wolves1–2Manchester City
- 4 May 2024Manchester City5–1Wolves
- 30 Sep 2023Wolves2–1Manchester City
- 22 Jan 2023Manchester City3–0Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.05 | 0.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.95 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.55 | 3.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 45% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 50% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Manchester City | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | 3.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.86 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 9.90 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 14/21 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.73 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.64 | 3.68 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 12/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Manchester City | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 10.44 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Farai Hallam 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.76
Red cards0.04league 0.10
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls23.4league 21.3
Penalties0.07league 0.21
Home wins33%league 45%
Manchester CityNo previous matches with this referee.
WolvesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City22 games · scored 45 · conceded 21
5
0-15
5
2
16-30
13
4
31-45
6
4
46-60
10
6
61-75
6
5
76-90
Wolves22 games · scored 15 · conceded 41
2
4
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
12
61-75
2
8
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
8
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
