Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
3rd · 51 pts · 29 played
WDWWL
3–1Full time
Aston Villa
4th · 51 pts · 29 played
DWDLL
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Manchester United. Manchester United had 10.7 days of rest, Aston Villa 2.8 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days10.7 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Manchester United56%
Draw23%
Aston Villa21%
Manchester United39%
Draw27%
Aston Villa34%
Manchester United54%
Draw24%
Aston Villa22%
Manchester United48%
Draw25%
Aston Villa27%
Manchester United54%
Draw25%
Aston Villa21%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 200
Team strength
Manchester UnitedAston Villa
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
72
AttackIn forecast
83
80
DefenceIn forecast
78
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedAston Villa
1.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.34
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
90%
Scored inContext
69%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
15.93
ShotsContext
12.59
5.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.34
36%
On target shareContext
35%
10.61
Shots in the boxContext
8.21
65%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.09
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.90
Shots allowedContext
12.76
3.66
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.28
3.52
BlocksContext
3.93
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
64%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
473
PassesContext
449
392
Accurate passesContext
382
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.96
FoulsContext
10.17
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
13.03
1.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.00
ShotsContext
13.50
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
41%
On target shareContext
33%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
65%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.20
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.00
BlocksContext
3.10
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
68%
Save rateContext
79%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
505
PassesContext
459
430
Accurate passesContext
390
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.90
FoulsContext
11.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest10.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km342 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel113 km814 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.7Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 342 km | 814 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
5T. Mings
4E. Konsa
26L. Bogarde
6R. Barkley
24A. Onana
10E. Buendía
7J. McGinn
27M. Rogers
11O. Watkins
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Aston Villa-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-2
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.14
Aston Villa · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Everton | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fulham | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Arsenal | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Bournemouth | D 4–4 H | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 51 of 84 · 1.82 per game | 48 of 84 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Manchester United wins2 draws3 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 21 Dec 2025Aston Villa2–1Manchester United
- 25 May 2025Manchester United2–0Aston Villa
- 6 Oct 2024Aston Villa0–0Manchester United
- 11 Feb 2024Aston Villa1–2Manchester United
- 26 Dec 2023Manchester United3–2Aston Villa
- 30 Apr 2023Manchester United1–0Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.76 | 1.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.52 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 48% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 52% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 31% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.32 | 5.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 9.32 | 10.18 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 15/28 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.48 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 4.11 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 16/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 12/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 10.22 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.76
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls21.0league 21.6
Penalties0.24league 0.21
Home wins34%league 42%
Manchester United22 with this referee
Record8-6-8
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- W17 Jan 26H · Manchester City2–02
- W26 Dec 25H · Newcastle1–02
- W25 Oct 25H · Brighton4–22
- L14 Sep 25A · Manchester City0–30
- L4 May 25A · Brentford3–42
Aston Villa10 with this referee
Record6-3-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D7 Feb 26A · Bournemouth1–11
- W14 Dec 25A · West Ham3–22
- L26 Dec 24A · Newcastle0–32
- D22 Dec 23H · Sheffield Utd1–13
- W20 Aug 23H · Everton4–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United29 games · scored 51 · conceded 40
4
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
10
6
31-45
10
8
46-60
7
6
61-75
13
12
76-90
Aston Villa29 games · scored 39 · conceded 34
2
6
0-15
5
3
16-30
8
7
31-45
7
7
46-60
6
6
61-75
11
5
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
