Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Manchester United
3rd · 51 pts · 29 played
WDWWL
3–1Full time
Aston Villa
4th · 51 pts · 29 played
DWDLL
Manchester United55.8%fair odds 1.79
Draw23.1%fair odds 4.32
Aston Villa21.1%fair odds 4.74
Expected goals1.93 – 1.11total 3.04
Likeliest score1–110.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Manchester United ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Manchester United goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%9.26
- 2–19.9%10.12
- 2–08.9%11.27
- 1–08.7%11.55
- 3–16.4%15.74
- 1–25.7%17.51
- 3–05.7%17.53
- 2–25.5%18.16
- 0–05.3%18.81
- 0–14.8%20.95
Winning margin
15.8%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 6.33
17.2%
Manchester United by 2
fair 5.81
22.8%
Manchester United by 1
fair 4.39
23.1%
Draw
fair 4.32
12.9%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 7.73
5.7%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 17.42
2.4%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 41.42
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Manchester United goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Aston Villa goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 55.8% | 54.3% | +1.5 pp |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.5% | -1.4 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 21.1% | 21.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 52.8% | +5.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 53.7% | +4.3 pp |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.93 | 1.77 | +0.16 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.11 | 1.02 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Manchester United win55.8%1.79
- Draw23.1%4.32
- Aston Villa win21.1%4.74
- Double chance Manchester United or draw78.9%1.27
- Double chance Manchester United or Aston Villa76.9%1.30
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw44.2%2.26
- Draw no bet Manchester United72.6%1.38
- Draw no bet Aston Villa27.4%3.65
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.3%1.23
- Over 2.558.6%1.71
- Over 3.536.2%2.76
- Over 4.519.2%5.21
- Under 1.518.7%5.33
- Under 2.541.4%2.42
- Under 3.563.8%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.73
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.547.2%2.12
- Manchester United win and yes28.3%3.54
- Draw and yes17.8%5.62
- Aston Villa win and yes11.9%8.43
Team goals
- Manchester United over 0.585.5%1.17
- Manchester United over 1.557.4%1.74
- Manchester United over 2.530.4%3.29
- Aston Villa over 0.567.2%1.49
- Aston Villa over 1.530.6%3.27
- Aston Villa over 2.510.2%9.76
- Manchester United clean sheet32.8%3.05
- Aston Villa clean sheet14.5%6.88
- Manchester United win to nil27.5%3.64
- Aston Villa win to nil9.2%10.84
Handicap
- Manchester United −1.533.0%3.03
- Manchester United −2.515.8%6.33
- Aston Villa +1.567.0%1.49
- Aston Villa +2.584.2%1.19
- Aston Villa −1.58.2%12.26
- Manchester United +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored296
Favourite won49.3%
Avg chance given to result39.1%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right53.7%
BTTS called right55.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.2% | 39.0% |
| 40–50% | 106 | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 85 | 54.8% | 51.8% |
| 60–70% | 38 | 64.2% | 57.9% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 73.6% | 56.5% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 241 of 296 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6256 | 0.6113 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.9% |
| Favourite won | 48.5% | 50.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 241 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 296 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.