Newcastle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Newcastle38.1%fair odds 2.63
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
Aston Villa36.4%fair odds 2.74
Expected goals1.52 – 1.48total 2.99
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Newcastle ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Newcastle goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.46
- 2–18.5%11.76
- 1–28.3%12.05
- 1–07.0%14.29
- 0–16.8%14.68
- 2–26.3%15.91
- 2–05.8%17.39
- 0–05.6%17.84
- 0–25.5%18.26
- 3–14.3%23.28
Winning margin
7.3%
Newcastle by 3+
fair 13.76
11.4%
Newcastle by 2
fair 8.74
19.3%
Newcastle by 1
fair 5.17
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
18.9%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 5.30
10.9%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 9.18
6.7%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 14.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Newcastle goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Aston Villa goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 38.1% | 37.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.8% | -1.3 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 36.4% | 35.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 51.8% | +5.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.8% | 56.4% | +4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Newcastle | 1.52 | 1.39 | +0.13 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.48 | 1.36 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Newcastle win38.1%2.63
- Draw25.5%3.92
- Aston Villa win36.4%2.74
- Double chance Newcastle or draw63.6%1.57
- Double chance Newcastle or Aston Villa74.5%1.34
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw61.9%1.61
- Draw no bet Newcastle51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Aston Villa48.9%2.04
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.6%1.24
- Over 2.557.5%1.74
- Over 3.535.1%2.85
- Over 4.518.4%5.44
- Under 1.519.4%5.15
- Under 2.542.5%2.36
- Under 3.564.9%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes60.8%1.64
- No39.2%2.55
- Yes and over 2.549.0%2.04
- Newcastle win and yes20.9%4.79
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- Aston Villa win and yes20.1%4.98
Team goals
- Newcastle over 0.578.0%1.28
- Newcastle over 1.544.7%2.24
- Newcastle over 2.519.5%5.13
- Aston Villa over 0.577.2%1.30
- Aston Villa over 1.543.5%2.30
- Aston Villa over 2.518.6%5.38
- Newcastle clean sheet22.8%4.39
- Aston Villa clean sheet22.0%4.55
- Newcastle win to nil17.2%5.82
- Aston Villa win to nil16.4%6.11
Handicap
- Newcastle −1.518.7%5.34
- Newcastle −2.57.3%13.76
- Aston Villa +1.581.3%1.23
- Aston Villa +2.592.7%1.08
- Aston Villa −1.517.6%5.69
- Newcastle +1.582.4%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored225
Favourite won51.1%
Avg chance given to result39.5%
1X2 Brier0.612
Over 2.5 called right54.2%
BTTS called right54.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 38.2% | 45.5% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.9% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 59 | 54.7% | 52.5% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.1% | 58.6% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 73.6% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 195 of 225 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6138 | 0.6021 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.6% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 50.8% | 51.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 195 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 225 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.