Newcastle vs Aston Villa – 25 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 23 Sun, Jan 25 · 14:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 9th · 33 pts · 22 played LWWWD

0–2Full time

Aston Villa 3rd · 43 pts · 22 played WLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 81). Newcastle had 7 days of rest, Aston Villa 2.8 and had to travel 278 km.

Away travel278 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Newcastle38%

Draw26%

Aston Villa36%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.48

Newcastle37%

Draw27%

Aston Villa36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

Newcastle38%

Draw26%

Aston Villa36%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.46

Newcastle31%

Draw25%

Aston Villa44%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.66

Newcastle37%

Draw27%

Aston Villa36%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.36

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 98

Team strength

Newcastle

Aston Villa

81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 87

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

61 AttackIn forecast 83

61 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Aston Villa

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

73% Scored inContext 68%

32% Clean sheetsContext 27%

12.91 ShotsContext 11.95

4.68 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.32

36% On target shareContext 36%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.05

64% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.07 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.68 Shots allowedContext 12.82

3.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.18

3.58 BlocksContext 4.09

2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.91

70% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 53%

464 PassesContext 445

389 Accurate passesContext 380

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.76 FoulsContext 9.77

11.55 Fouls sufferedContext 13.95

1.41 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.10 ShotsContext 12.10

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

37% On target shareContext 39%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

77% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.29

11.80 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.22 BlocksContext 3.80

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

72% Save rateContext 75%

57% PossessionIn forecast 54%

513 PassesContext 467

435 Accurate passesContext 402

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.85

7.60 FoulsContext 9.70

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km535 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel278 km5,291 km in 14d

Schedule load18%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 18
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Jan	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	278 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	535 km	5,291 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	2 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 67L. Miley

10A. Gordon 9Y. Wissa 11H. Barnes

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

8Y. Tielemans 24A. Onana

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 19J. Sancho

11O. Watkins

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Aston Villa+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 2.09points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 7-2-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.36

Aston Villa · Away 1.64points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 5-3-3
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.45

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Aston Villa
Wolves	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Leeds	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 AL 0–3 H
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
Manchester United	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 A
Sunderland	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 A
Everton	W 4–1 A	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Brentford	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 A
West Ham	L 1–3 A	W 3–2 A
Fulham	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 H
Brighton	L 1–2 A	W 4–3 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	W 4–0 H
Liverpool	L 2–3 H	L 0–2 A
Points	32 of 63 · 1.52 per game	42 of 63 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

5 Newcastle wins2 draws3 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game1.80 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 30%

16 Aug 2025Aston Villa0–0Newcastle
19 Apr 2025Aston Villa4–1Newcastle
26 Dec 2024Newcastle3–0Aston Villa
30 Jan 2024Aston Villa1–3Newcastle
12 Aug 2023Newcastle5–1Aston Villa
15 Apr 2023Aston Villa3–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	1.50
Conceded per game	1.23	1.14
Match goals	2.68	2.64	2.99
Over 1.5	68%	68%
Over 2.5	59%	59%	58%
Over 3.5	36%	27%
Both teams scored	59%	55%	61%
Clean sheets	32%	27%
Failed to score	27%	32%
Games	22	22

	Newcastle	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.60
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.80	2.99
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.45	5.05
Corners conceded	5.23	4.68
Match total	11.68	9.73	9.94
Over 8.5	77% 17/22	68% 15/22
Over 9.5	64% 14/22	64% 14/22
Over 10.5	55% 12/22	41% 9/22
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.55
Opponent cards	2.41	2.50
Match total	3.91	4.05	3.86
Over 3.5	50% 11/22	59% 13/22
Over 4.5	32% 7/22	36% 8/22

	Newcastle	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	4.80
Corners conceded	4.10	4.00
Match total	10.60	8.80	9.94
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	3.30	2.50
Match total	5.30	4.70	3.86
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 98 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.73

Red cards0.10league 0.10

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls20.1league 21.3

Penalties0.21league 0.20

Home wins39%league 46%

Newcastle11 with this referee

Record4-5-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against3 · 0

L28 Sep 25H · Arsenal1–22
L19 Apr 25A · Aston Villa1–43
W23 Feb 25H · Nottingham Forest4–31
D28 Sep 24H · Manchester City1–14
D27 Feb 24A · Blackburn1–12

Aston Villa11 with this referee

Record5-3-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W19 Apr 25H · Newcastle4–11
W8 Mar 25A · Brentford1–02
W4 Jan 25H · Leicester2–10
D17 Mar 24A · West Ham1–13
W9 Dec 23H · Arsenal1–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.