Newcastle vs Brentford – 7 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 25 Sat, Feb 7 · 17:30 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 12th · 33 pts · 24 played WWDLL

2–3Full time

Brentford 8th · 36 pts · 24 played WWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Newcastle. Newcastle had 6.9 days of rest, Brentford 6.1 and had to travel 397 km.

Away travel397 kmRest days6.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Newcastle46%

Draw26%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.23

Newcastle47%

Draw26%

Brentford26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Newcastle48%

Draw25%

Brentford27%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.21

Newcastle39%

Draw26%

Brentford35%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.38

Newcastle45%

Draw27%

Brentford28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.15

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 128

Team strength

Newcastle

Brentford

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

61 AttackIn forecast 73

61 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Brentford

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

71% Scored inContext 71%

29% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.79 ShotsContext 10.29

4.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.04

36% On target shareContext 39%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.05

63% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.08 Shots allowedContext 12.71

4.08 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.04

3.48 BlocksContext 4.58

2.87 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

69% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

460 PassesContext 390

386 Accurate passesContext 311

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.52 FoulsContext 10.96

11.54 Fouls sufferedContext 9.04

1.46 Yellow cardsContext 1.96

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.50 ShotsContext 11.60

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

35% On target shareContext 42%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

76% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.70 Shots allowedContext 12.70

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.11 BlocksContext 5.20

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

70% Save rateContext 83%

56% PossessionIn forecast 54%

510 PassesContext 471

431 Accurate passesContext 391

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.03 Team ratingContext 7.08

6.40 FoulsContext 9.40

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km390 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel397 km311 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan	6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	397 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	390 km	311 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

28J. Willock 39Bruno Guimarães 8S. Tonali

11H. Barnes 9Y. Wissa 23J. Murphy

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 6J. Henderson

23K. Lewis-Potter 8M. Jensen 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-1.3 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Brentford+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.92points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 7-2-3
Scored: 1.83
Conceded: 1.42

Brentford · Away 1.00points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-8
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Brentford
Liverpool	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H	W 3–2 H
Aston Villa	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Wolves	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Leeds	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 A
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	W 3–1 H
Manchester United	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Sunderland	L 0–1 A	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Everton	W 4–1 A	W 4–2 A
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 H
West Ham	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 A
Fulham	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 A
Brighton	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	W 4–1 H
Points	33 of 69 · 1.43 per game	33 of 69 · 1.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Newcastle wins1 draws2 Brentford wins

Goals per game2.44 – 1.67 Over 2.578% Both scored78% Clean sheets22% · 0%

9 Nov 2025Brentford3–1Newcastle
2 Apr 2025Newcastle2–1Brentford
7 Dec 2024Brentford4–2Newcastle
19 May 2024Brentford2–4Newcastle
16 Sep 2023Newcastle1–0Brentford
8 Apr 2023Brentford1–2Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.50
Conceded per game	1.38	1.33
Match goals	2.75	2.83	2.88
Over 1.5	71%	83%
Over 2.5	58%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	58%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	29%	25%
Failed to score	29%	29%
Games	24	24

	Newcastle	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	2.90	2.50	2.88
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	6.63	5.17
Corners conceded	5.29	5.13
Match total	11.92	10.30	9.99
Over 8.5	79% 19/24	74% 17/23
Over 9.5	67% 16/24	65% 15/23
Over 10.5	58% 14/24	61% 14/23
Cards
Cards	1.54	2.00
Opponent cards	2.33	1.71
Match total	3.87	3.71	3.85
Over 3.5	50% 12/24	54% 13/24
Over 4.5	29% 7/24	42% 10/24

	Newcastle	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.78
Corners conceded	4.20	5.44
Match total	10.80	10.22	9.99
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.00
Match total	3.90	2.80	3.85
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 128 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.32league 3.71

Red cards0.12league 0.11

Cards 5+28%league 38%

Fouls22.9league 21.2

Penalties0.13league 0.21

Home wins47%league 45%

Newcastle9 with this referee

Record3-4-2 Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

D20 Dec 25H · Chelsea2–23
L15 Feb 25A · Manchester City0–41
W4 Jan 25A · Tottenham2–14
D4 Dec 24H · Liverpool3–32
W12 Aug 23H · Aston Villa5–14

Brentford10 with this referee

Record4-3-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

D1 Jan 26H · Tottenham0–01
W20 Oct 25A · West Ham2–01
L18 Jan 25H · Liverpool0–22
D27 Dec 24A · Brighton0–02
W5 Oct 24H · Wolves5–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.