Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Newcastle were slight favourites.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 64). Absences weigh more on Fulham. Newcastle had 7 days of rest, Fulham 6.9 and had to travel 398 km.
Away travel398 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Newcastle59%
Draw22%
Fulham19%
Newcastle56%
Draw24%
Fulham20%
Newcastle57%
Draw23%
Fulham20%
Newcastle51%
Draw24%
Fulham25%
Newcastle57%
Draw23%
Fulham19%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 106
Team strength
Newcastle
Fulham
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
61
AttackIn forecast
66
61
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleFulham
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
63%
Scored inContext
75%
63%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.25
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
29%
On target shareContext
28%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
60%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.20
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.38
Shots allowedContext
10.88
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.83
BlocksContext
3.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
76%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
415
PassesContext
421
334
Accurate passesContext
349
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.00
FoulsContext
13.63
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.88
1.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.10
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
37%
On target shareContext
30%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
64%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.78
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
77%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
405
PassesContext
416
327
Accurate passesContext
346
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.00
FoulsContext
12.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km936 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel398 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 398 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 936 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
1N. Pope(G)
33D. Burn
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
2K. Trippier
7Joelinton
67L. Miley
39Bruno Guimarães
10A. Gordon
27N. Woltemade
23J. Murphy
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
31I. Diop
2K. Tete
16S. Berge
20S. Lukić
17A. Iwobi
32E. Smith Rowe
11Adama Traoré
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle+1.7 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Fulham-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Fulham · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Leeds | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Newcastle wins1 draws2 Fulham wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.88
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 1 Feb 2025Newcastle1–2Fulham
- 21 Sep 2024Fulham3–1Newcastle
- 6 Apr 2024Fulham0–1Newcastle
- 16 Dec 2023Newcastle3–0Fulham
- 15 Jan 2023Newcastle1–0Fulham
- 1 Oct 2022Fulham1–4Newcastle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 2.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Newcastle | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 2.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 10.38 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 3.25 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Newcastle | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 9.80 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 3.64
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 41%
Fouls21.5league 21.9
Penalties0.15league 0.20
Home wins48%league 48%
Newcastle13 with this referee
Record3-5-5
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W5 Oct 25H · Nottingham Forest2–00
- D30 Aug 25A · Leeds0–01
- W2 Apr 25H · Brentford2–11
- L19 Oct 24H · Brighton0–12
- L21 Sep 24A · Fulham1–30
Fulham9 with this referee
Record5-1-3
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W25 Feb 25A · Wolves2–13
- W5 Dec 24H · Brighton3–12
- L5 Oct 24A · Manchester City2–31
- W21 Sep 24H · Newcastle3–16
- W22 Apr 23H · Leeds2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Newcastle8 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
3
4
76-90
Fulham8 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
