Newcastle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Newcastle
15th · 6 pts · 6 played
LDWDL
2–0Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 5 pts · 6 played
DLLDL
Newcastle57.8%fair odds 1.73
Draw22.6%fair odds 4.42
Nottingham Forest19.6%fair odds 5.10
Expected goals1.98 – 1.08total 3.05
Likeliest score1–110.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nottingham Forest
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Newcastle ↓ · Nottingham Forest → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Newcastle goals, columns Nottingham Forest goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%9.46
- 2–19.9%10.07
- 2–09.2%10.83
- 1–08.8%11.36
- 3–16.5%15.28
- 3–06.1%16.44
- 1–25.4%18.51
- 2–25.3%18.72
- 0–05.3%19.04
- 0–14.5%22.00
Winning margin
17.0%
Newcastle by 3+
fair 5.87
17.8%
Newcastle by 2
fair 5.62
22.9%
Newcastle by 1
fair 4.36
22.6%
Draw
fair 4.42
12.2%
Nottingham Forest by 1
fair 8.17
5.3%
Nottingham Forest by 2
fair 19.00
2.1%
Nottingham Forest by 3+
fair 47.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Newcastle goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
Nottingham Forest goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 57.8% | 56.8% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.6% | -1.0 pp |
| Nottingham Forest win | 19.6% | 19.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 54.5% | +4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.3% | 54.1% | +3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Newcastle | 1.98 | 1.86 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Nottingham Forest | 1.08 | 1.00 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Newcastle win57.8%1.73
- Draw22.6%4.42
- Nottingham Forest win19.6%5.10
- Double chance Newcastle or draw80.4%1.24
- Double chance Newcastle or Nottingham Forest77.4%1.29
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw42.2%2.37
- Draw no bet Newcastle74.6%1.34
- Draw no bet Nottingham Forest25.4%3.94
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.4%1.23
- Over 2.558.9%1.70
- Over 3.536.5%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.16
- Under 1.518.6%5.38
- Under 2.541.1%2.43
- Under 3.563.5%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes57.3%1.74
- No42.7%2.34
- Yes and over 2.546.7%2.14
- Newcastle win and yes28.9%3.46
- Draw and yes17.4%5.76
- Nottingham Forest win and yes11.0%9.06
Team goals
- Newcastle over 0.586.2%1.16
- Newcastle over 1.558.8%1.70
- Newcastle over 2.531.7%3.15
- Nottingham Forest over 0.565.9%1.52
- Nottingham Forest over 1.529.2%3.42
- Nottingham Forest over 2.59.5%10.55
- Newcastle clean sheet34.1%2.93
- Nottingham Forest clean sheet13.8%7.23
- Newcastle win to nil28.9%3.47
- Nottingham Forest win to nil8.6%11.64
Handicap
- Newcastle −1.534.8%2.87
- Newcastle −2.517.0%5.87
- Nottingham Forest +1.565.2%1.53
- Nottingham Forest +2.583.0%1.21
- Nottingham Forest −1.57.4%13.55
- Newcastle +1.592.6%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored65
Favourite won50.8%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.606
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right52.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.0% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 44.5% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 53.6% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 64.1% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.7% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 35 of 65 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6092 | 0.5803 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 48.6% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 35 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Bournemouth 3–1 Fulham50·25·26
- ✗Everton 1–1 West Ham55·24·22
- ✓Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal28·25·47
- ✓Aston Villa 3–1 Fulham52·24·24
- ✗Tottenham 1–1 Wolves60·22·18
- ✗Nottingham Forest 0–1 Sunderland65·20·15
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 65 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.