Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest – 5 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 5 · 14:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 15th · 6 pts · 6 played LDWDL

2–0Full time

Nottingham Forest 17th · 5 pts · 6 played DLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were slight favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 63). Newcastle had 6.9 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 2.8 and had to travel 227 km.

Away travel227 kmRest days6.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3

Newcastle58%

Draw23%

Nottingham Forest20%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.08

Newcastle56%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest20%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.99

Newcastle57%

Draw23%

Nottingham Forest20%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.06

Newcastle50%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest26%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.21

Newcastle57%

Draw24%

Nottingham Forest20%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.00

Over 2.5 59% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 105

Team strength

Newcastle

Nottingham Forest

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

61 AttackIn forecast 68

61 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Nottingham Forest

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

50% Scored inContext 50%

67% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.33 ShotsContext 12.50

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

26% On target shareContext 32%

6.17 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

58% Box shareContext 68%

7% ConversionContext 7%

1.25 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.60 BlocksContext 3.50

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

75% Save rateContext 64%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

394 PassesContext 515

310 Accurate passesContext 448

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.83 FoulsContext 10.83

11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 9.67

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

50% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.40 ShotsContext 13.30

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

33% On target shareContext 35%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

62% Box shareContext 70%

8% ConversionContext 8%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.43

11.80 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.78 BlocksContext 3.13

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

78% Save rateContext 59%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

403 PassesContext 469

326 Accurate passesContext 404

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.00 FoulsContext 11.20

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel227 km3,542 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 33
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Sep	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	227 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	946 km	3,542 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	13	12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 20A. Elanga

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-3

26M. Sels(G)

4Morato 31N. Milenković 23Jair

3N. Williams 8E. Anderson 22R. Yates 37N. Savona

14D. Ndoye 11C. Wood 10M. Gibbs-White

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+1.0 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.67

Nottingham Forest · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Nottingham Forest
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 0–3 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Newcastle wins0 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.67 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%

23 Feb 2025Newcastle4–3Nottingham Forest
10 Nov 2024Nottingham Forest1–3Newcastle
10 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest2–3Newcastle
26 Dec 2023Newcastle1–3Nottingham Forest
17 Mar 2023Nottingham Forest1–2Newcastle
6 Aug 2022Newcastle2–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	0.83
Conceded per game	0.83	1.67
Match goals	1.50	2.50	3.05
Over 1.5	33%	83%
Over 2.5	33%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	33%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	6	6

	Newcastle	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.13
Conceded per game	0.83	1.88
Match goals	1.50	3.00	3.05
Over 1.5	33%	88%
Over 2.5	33%	63%	59%
Over 3.5	17%	38%
Both teams scored	33%	63%	57%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	50%	38%
Games	6	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.33
Corners conceded	5.00	4.83
Match total	11.00	10.16	9.89
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.67
Opponent cards	2.17	1.50
Match total	3.67	3.17	3.87
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6

	Newcastle	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	5.90
Corners conceded	5.40	5.20
Match total	12.00	11.10	9.89
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	2.90	2.20
Match total	4.50	4.20	3.87
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 105 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.11league 3.74

Red cards0.11league 0.14

Cards 5+45%league 42%

Fouls21.4league 22.0

Penalties0.14league 0.20

Home wins48%league 48%

Newcastle12 with this referee

Record2-5-5 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 2

D30 Aug 25A · Leeds0–01
W2 Apr 25H · Brentford2–11
L19 Oct 24H · Brighton0–12
L21 Sep 24A · Fulham1–30
D8 Oct 23A · West Ham2–23

Nottingham Forest9 with this referee

Record7-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 1

W17 Aug 25H · Brentford3–11
W21 Apr 25A · Tottenham2–14
W6 Jan 25A · Wolves3–02
W2 Nov 24H · West Ham3–01
W18 Aug 23H · Sheffield Utd2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.