Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea – 18 Oct 2025

Premier League Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 18 · 12:30 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 17th · 5 pts · 7 played LLDLL

0–3Full time

Chelsea 7th · 11 pts · 7 played WDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 62). Nottingham Forest had 12.9 days of rest, Chelsea 13.8 and had to travel 175 km.

Away travel175 kmRest days12.9 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Nottingham Forest29%

Draw25%

Chelsea46%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.69

Nottingham Forest29%

Draw27%

Chelsea45%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.52

Nottingham Forest29%

Draw25%

Chelsea46%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.67

Nottingham Forest23%

Draw23%

Chelsea54%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.89

Nottingham Forest29%

Draw26%

Chelsea44%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.54

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 135

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Chelsea

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

68 AttackIn forecast 77

74 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Chelsea

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

43% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.43 ShotsContext 12.86

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

35% On target shareContext 36%

7.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.29

69% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.43 Shots allowedContext 10.86

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

3.80 BlocksContext 3.00

3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

68% Save rateContext 67%

56% PossessionIn forecast 60%

506 PassesContext 534

437 Accurate passesContext 463

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.01

11.43 FoulsContext 10.29

10.57 Fouls sufferedContext 12.29

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.14

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.29

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.46 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

50% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.80 ShotsContext 11.80

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

35% On target shareContext 38%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

71% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 16%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.44

11.00 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.00 BlocksContext 3.10

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

60% Save rateContext 69%

55% PossessionIn forecast 59%

482 PassesContext 526

415 Accurate passesContext 458

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.00 FoulsContext 10.30

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km453 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel175 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.9Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct	13.8Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	453 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

5-3-2

26M. Sels(G)

35O. Zinchenko 5Murillo 4Morato 31N. Milenković 3N. Williams

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré 12Douglas Luiz

9T. Awoniyi 10M. Gibbs-White

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 34J. Acheampong 24R. James

45R. Lavia 27M. Gusto

49A. Garnacho 17Andrey Santos 7Pedro Neto

20João Pedro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Chelsea-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Chelsea · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea
West Ham	L 0–3 H	W 5–1 A
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Brentford	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 A
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Nottingham Forest wins3 draws2 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

25 May 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Chelsea
6 Oct 2024Chelsea1–1Nottingham Forest
11 May 2024Nottingham Forest2–3Chelsea
2 Sep 2023Chelsea0–1Nottingham Forest
13 May 2023Chelsea2–2Nottingham Forest
1 Jan 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	0.71	1.86
Conceded per game	1.71	1.29
Match goals	2.43	3.14	3.00
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	71%	58%
Over 3.5	14%	43%
Both teams scored	43%	71%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	29%
Failed to score	57%	14%
Games	7	7

	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.86
Conceded per game	1.89	1.29
Match goals	2.89	3.14	3.00
Over 1.5	89%	86%
Over 2.5	56%	71%	58%
Over 3.5	33%	43%
Both teams scored	56%	71%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	29%
Failed to score	44%	14%
Games	9	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	6.43
Corners conceded	5.29	4.57
Match total	10.00	11.00	9.75
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	100% 7/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	86% 6/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.43
Opponent cards	1.29	2.43
Match total	3.29	4.86	3.94
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7

	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.30
Corners conceded	5.20	4.70
Match total	10.50	10.00	9.75
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.70
Opponent cards	1.60	2.70
Match total	3.70	5.40	3.94
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 135 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 3.81

Red cards0.13league 0.13

Cards 5+36%league 43%

Fouls21.7league 22.2

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins40%league 49%

Nottingham Forest10 with this referee

Record4-4-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

W8 Mar 25H · Manchester City1–03
D14 Jan 25H · Liverpool1–12
D6 Oct 24A · Chelsea1–14
W4 May 24A · Sheffield Utd3–11
D30 Mar 24H · Crystal Palace1–11

Chelsea12 with this referee

Record6-3-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.7 Pens for · against3 · 1

W16 May 25H · Manchester United1–01
W26 Apr 25H · Everton1–00
L16 Mar 25A · Arsenal0–13
L14 Feb 25A · Brighton0–32
D22 Dec 24A · Everton0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.