Nottingham Forest
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nottingham Forest29.2%fair odds 3.42
Draw25.0%fair odds 4.00
Chelsea45.8%fair odds 2.19
Expected goals1.31 – 1.69total 3.00
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nottingham Forest ↓ · Chelsea → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nottingham Forest goals, columns Chelsea goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.61
- 1–29.3%10.74
- 0–17.8%12.77
- 2–17.2%13.84
- 0–27.1%14.08
- 2–26.1%16.39
- 1–05.9%16.81
- 0–05.6%17.95
- 1–35.2%19.09
- 2–04.3%23.36
Winning margin
4.4%
Nottingham Forest by 3+
fair 22.77
8.5%
Nottingham Forest by 2
fair 11.83
16.4%
Nottingham Forest by 1
fair 6.10
25.0%
Draw
fair 4.00
21.3%
Chelsea by 1
fair 4.70
14.0%
Chelsea by 2
fair 7.13
10.4%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 9.57
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Nottingham Forest goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Chelsea goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest win | 29.2% | 29.2% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.4% | -1.4 pp |
| Chelsea win | 45.8% | 44.3% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 51.8% | +5.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.1% | 55.7% | +4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Nottingham Forest | 1.31 | 1.21 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 1.69 | 1.54 | +0.15 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nottingham Forest win29.2%3.42
- Draw25.0%4.00
- Chelsea win45.8%2.19
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw54.2%1.84
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or Chelsea75.0%1.33
- Double chance Chelsea or draw70.8%1.41
- Draw no bet Nottingham Forest39.0%2.56
- Draw no bet Chelsea61.0%1.64
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.7%1.24
- Over 2.557.7%1.73
- Over 3.535.2%2.84
- Over 4.518.5%5.42
- Under 1.519.3%5.17
- Under 2.542.3%2.36
- Under 3.564.8%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes60.1%1.66
- No39.9%2.51
- Yes and over 2.548.5%2.06
- Nottingham Forest win and yes16.3%6.13
- Draw and yes19.4%5.14
- Chelsea win and yes24.4%4.11
Team goals
- Nottingham Forest over 0.573.0%1.37
- Nottingham Forest over 1.537.7%2.65
- Nottingham Forest over 2.514.5%6.88
- Chelsea over 0.581.5%1.23
- Chelsea over 1.550.3%1.99
- Chelsea over 2.524.0%4.17
- Nottingham Forest clean sheet18.5%5.41
- Chelsea clean sheet27.0%3.71
- Nottingham Forest win to nil12.9%7.74
- Chelsea win to nil21.4%4.67
Handicap
- Nottingham Forest −1.512.8%7.78
- Nottingham Forest −2.54.4%22.77
- Chelsea +1.587.2%1.15
- Chelsea +2.595.6%1.05
- Chelsea −1.524.5%4.09
- Nottingham Forest +1.575.5%1.32
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored70
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result40.0%
1X2 Brier0.599
Over 2.5 called right52.9%
BTTS called right52.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.2% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 29 | 44.6% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 53.9% | 41.2% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 64.1% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.7% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 40 of 70 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5956 | 0.5622 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.4% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 55.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 40 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 70 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.