RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
5th · 40 pts · 22 played
WDLWD
2–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 51 pts · 22 played
WWWWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 6 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7.9 and had to travel 341 km.
Away travel341 kmRest days6 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
RB Leipzig34%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund41%
RB Leipzig31%
Draw27%
Borussia Dortmund42%
RB Leipzig33%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund42%
RB Leipzig27%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund50%
RB Leipzig33%
Draw26%
Borussia Dortmund41%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 56
Team strength
RB LeipzigBorussia Dortmund
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
76
AttackIn forecast
69
53
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigBorussia Dortmund
1.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
91%
Scored inContext
100%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.68
ShotsContext
12.95
5.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.68
36%
On target shareContext
36%
11.14
Shots in the boxContext
9.14
71%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.21
OffsidesContext
1.79
11.73
Shots allowedContext
10.14
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.57
BlocksContext
2.65
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
65%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
503
PassesContext
494
428
Accurate passesContext
418
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.00
8.91
FoulsContext
10.82
10.09
Fouls sufferedContext
10.41
1.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.20
ShotsContext
13.10
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
33%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
76%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.40
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.56
BlocksContext
2.56
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
60%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
551
PassesContext
468
472
Accurate passesContext
390
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.01
8.40
FoulsContext
10.70
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km762 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel341 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 341 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 762 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
24X. Schlager
13N. Seiwald
14C. Baumgartner
49Y. Diomande
40Rômulo
10B. Gruda
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
3W. Anton
49Luca Reggiani
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-3
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 1.36
Borussia Dortmund · Away
2.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-1
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 1.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | L 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 6–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 39 of 63 · 1.86 per game | 50 of 63 · 2.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 RB Leipzig wins1 draws2 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.11
Over 2.578%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets22% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Borussia Dortmund1–1RB Leipzig
- 15 Mar 2025RB Leipzig2–0Borussia Dortmund
- 2 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund2–1RB Leipzig
- 27 Apr 2024RB Leipzig4–1Borussia Dortmund
- 9 Dec 2023Borussia Dortmund2–3RB Leipzig
- 3 Mar 2023Borussia Dortmund2–1RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.91 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.27 | 3.05 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 55% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 0% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 4.24 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 9.67 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 13/20 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 11/20 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.41 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 3.27 | 3.68 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 9/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 4/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 8.40 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.50 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.77
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls22.9league 20.7
Penalties0.36league 0.36
Home wins32%league 46%
RB Leipzig7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 3.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L20 Dec 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–31
- W20 Sep 25H · 1.FC Köln3–11
- W15 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
- W24 Aug 24H · VfL Bochum1–02
- D10 Feb 24A · FC Augsburg2–21
Borussia Dortmund5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against5 · 1
- D22 Nov 25H · VfB Stuttgart3–31
- W25 Oct 25H · 1.FC Köln1–02
- W26 Apr 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21
- W28 Jan 24H · VfL Bochum3–11
- W23 Oct 21A · Arminia Bielefeld3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig22 games · scored 42 · conceded 30
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
9
6
31-45
10
6
46-60
9
5
61-75
4
9
76-90
Borussia Dortmund22 games · scored 47 · conceded 20
6
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
15
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
7
5
61-75
12
7
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 23 · conceded 12
6
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
