RB Leipzig
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RB Leipzig
5th · 40 pts · 22 played
WDLWD
2–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 51 pts · 22 played
WWWWW
RB Leipzig34.1%fair odds 2.93
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.09
Borussia Dortmund41.4%fair odds 2.41
Expected goals1.52 – 1.69total 3.20
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RB Leipzig ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RB Leipzig goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.14
- 1–28.8%11.41
- 2–17.9%12.69
- 2–26.6%15.05
- 0–16.3%15.86
- 0–25.8%17.29
- 1–05.6%17.83
- 1–34.9%20.28
- 2–04.7%21.42
- 0–04.6%21.67
Winning margin
6.3%
RB Leipzig by 3+
fair 15.85
10.2%
RB Leipzig by 2
fair 9.84
17.7%
RB Leipzig by 1
fair 5.66
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.09
19.7%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 5.07
12.6%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 7.94
9.1%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 10.95
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
RB Leipzig goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 34.1% | 33.4% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.0% | -1.5 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 41.4% | 40.7% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 55.1% | +7.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.1% | 58.8% | +5.3 pp |
| Expected goals RB Leipzig | 1.52 | 1.36 | +0.15 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 1.69 | 1.53 | +0.16 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RB Leipzig win34.1%2.93
- Draw24.4%4.09
- Borussia Dortmund win41.4%2.41
- Double chance RB Leipzig or draw58.6%1.71
- Double chance RB Leipzig or Borussia Dortmund75.6%1.32
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw65.9%1.52
- Draw no bet RB Leipzig45.2%2.21
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund54.8%1.82
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.5%1.20
- Over 2.562.1%1.61
- Over 3.539.8%2.51
- Over 4.522.0%4.55
- Under 1.516.5%6.05
- Under 2.537.9%2.64
- Under 3.560.2%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes64.1%1.56
- No35.9%2.79
- Yes and over 2.553.2%1.88
- RB Leipzig win and yes20.2%4.94
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes24.1%4.15
Team goals
- RB Leipzig over 0.578.0%1.28
- RB Leipzig over 1.544.7%2.23
- RB Leipzig over 2.519.5%5.12
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.581.5%1.23
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.550.3%1.99
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.523.9%4.18
- RB Leipzig clean sheet18.5%5.40
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet22.0%4.55
- RB Leipzig win to nil13.9%7.20
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil17.3%5.76
Handicap
- RB Leipzig −1.516.5%6.07
- RB Leipzig −2.56.3%15.85
- Borussia Dortmund +1.583.5%1.20
- Borussia Dortmund +2.593.7%1.07
- Borussia Dortmund −1.521.7%4.60
- RB Leipzig +1.578.3%1.28
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored202
Favourite won56.9%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right62.9%
BTTS called right56.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 27 | 38.2% | 40.7% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 45.1% | 44.3% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 55.3% | 59.6% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.7% | 74.2% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.3% | 76.5% |
| 80%+ | 9 | 85.8% | 77.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 182 of 202 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5501 | 0.5441 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 58.2% | 58.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 182 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 202 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.