RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. RB Leipzig had 25.1 days of rest, SC Freiburg 4.2 and had to travel 494 km.
Away travel494 kmRest days25.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
RB Leipzig48%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg27%
RB Leipzig47%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg27%
RB Leipzig48%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg27%
RB Leipzig41%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg34%
RB Leipzig47%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg27%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Hartmann
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 58
Team strength
RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
76
AttackIn forecast
63
53
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigSC Freiburg
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
87%
Scored inContext
81%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.73
ShotsContext
13.31
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
36%
On target shareContext
33%
10.27
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
65%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.71
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.44
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
4.07
BlocksContext
3.69
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
70%
Save rateContext
62%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
470
PassesContext
433
397
Accurate passesContext
358
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.20
FoulsContext
9.31
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.44
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.10
ShotsContext
16.40
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
40%
On target shareContext
35%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
64%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.60
BlocksContext
4.50
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
494
PassesContext
457
421
Accurate passesContext
381
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.88
8.80
FoulsContext
10.20
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest25.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel494 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 25.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 494 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
20F. Ouédraogo
40Rômulo
27Tidiam Gomis
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
5A. Jung
43B. Ogbus
17L. Kübler
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
44J. Manzambi
14Y. Suzuki
29P. Treu
9L. Höler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-1
- Scored
- 2.71
- Conceded
- 0.86
SC Freiburg · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 6–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–6 A | L 2–6 A |
| Points | 29 of 45 · 1.93 per game | 20 of 45 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 RB Leipzig wins3 draws0 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 8 Mar 2025SC Freiburg0–0RB Leipzig
- 26 Oct 2024RB Leipzig3–1SC Freiburg
- 6 Apr 2024SC Freiburg1–4RB Leipzig
- 12 Nov 2023RB Leipzig3–1SC Freiburg
- 6 May 2023SC Freiburg0–1RB Leipzig
- 9 Nov 2022RB Leipzig3–1SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 3.27 | 3.38 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 69% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 53% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 69% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 19% | |
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.72 | 9.00 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 10/14 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 10/14 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 2.81 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.56 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 3/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 10.01 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Hartmann Germany · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.84
Red cards0.24league 0.20
Cards 5+38%league 40%
Fouls22.7league 21.1
Penalties0.31league 0.33
Home wins45%league 46%
RB Leipzig6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W5 Apr 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–10
- D18 Jan 25A · VfL Bochum3–30
- D22 Sep 24A · FC St. Pauli0–01
- W9 Mar 24H · SV Darmstadt 982–00
- L25 Nov 23A · VfL Wolfsburg1–22
SC Freiburg4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W30 Nov 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–11
- L27 Jan 24A · Werder Bremen1–31
- W23 Apr 23H · FC Schalke 044–01
- W5 Dec 21A · Borussia Mönchengladbach6–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig15 games · scored 30 · conceded 19
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
SC Freiburg16 games · scored 27 · conceded 27
5
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
8
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 23 · conceded 12
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
