SC Braga vs Ferencvarosi TC – 18 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Wed, Mar 18 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

First leg0–2 4–0Full time

Ferencvarosi TC 1st · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ferencvarosi TC. SC Braga had 5.8 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 5.8 and had to travel 2,262 km.

Away travel2,262 kmRest days5.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

SC Braga54%

Draw24%

Ferencvarosi TC21%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.05

SC Braga53%

Draw25%

Ferencvarosi TC22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

SC Braga52%

Draw25%

Ferencvarosi TC23%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.06

SC Braga47%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC27%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.17

SC Braga53%

Draw25%

Ferencvarosi TC22%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.03

Over 2.5 54% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

RefereeGlenn Nyberg

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 36

Team strength

SC Braga

Ferencvarosi TC

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

42 AttackIn forecast 61

59 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Ferencvarosi TC

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

80% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.80 ShotsContext 12.60

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

41% On target shareContext 34%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

70% Box shareContext 70%

19% ConversionContext 13%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.10

9.60 Shots allowedContext 12.80

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.60 BlocksContext 3.60

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

70% Save rateContext 73%

60% PossessionIn forecast 44%

574 PassesContext 375

502 Accurate passesContext 303

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.60 FoulsContext 13.80

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km4,524 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ferencvarosi TC

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar	5.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,524 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	113.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Horníček(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 4S. Niakaté 14G. Lagerbielke

77Gabri Martínez 27F. Grillitsch 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 2Víctor Gómez

21Ricardo Horta 10R. Zalazar

18Pau Víctor

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

99D. Gróf(G)

4M. Gómez 28T. Raemaekers 27I. Cissé

47C. O'Dowda 36G. Kanichowsky 66Júlio Romão 25Č. Makreckis

15M. Abu Fani

11B. Yusuf 75L. Joseph

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+2.2 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Ferencvarosi TC-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home No home games yet this season.

Ferencvarosi TC · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 SC Braga wins0 draws1 Ferencvarosi TC wins

Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

12 Mar 2026Ferencvarosi TC2–0SC Braga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.85
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	SC Braga	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.60
Conceded per game	0.90	1.20
Match goals	3.00	2.80	2.85
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	10.00	2.00
Corners conceded	2.00	10.00
Match total	12.00	12.00	9.00
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	3.57
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	SC Braga	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	3.80
Corners conceded	2.25	5.60
Match total	7.88	9.40	9.00
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	3.70	4.70	3.57
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Glenn Nyberg 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.31league 3.63

Red cards0.11league 0.38

Cards 5+31%league 50%

Fouls21.7league 24.9

Penalties0.22league 0.13

Home wins42%league 38%

SC Braga

No previous matches with this referee.

Ferencvarosi TC

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.