Bundesliga Gameweek 12 Sat, Dec 5 · 14:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel159 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
SC Freiburg—%
Draw—%
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

Forecast from 20 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SC Freiburg1899 Hoffenheim
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
63 AttackIn forecast 46
73 DefenceIn forecast 43
78 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Freiburg1899 Hoffenheim
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
+0.63 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
100% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.00 ShotsContext 17.83
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
33% On target shareContext 30%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
63% Box shareContext 61%
16% ConversionContext 10%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.20
9.17 Shots allowedContext 13.50
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.33 BlocksContext 4.33
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
64% Save rateContext 52%
53% PossessionIn forecast 57%
465 PassesContext 499
390 Accurate passesContext 405
84% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.83
9.50 FoulsContext 13.33
14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
+0.88 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
90% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
13.50 ShotsContext 16.60
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
37% On target shareContext 28%
8.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
64% Box shareContext 62%
18% ConversionContext 8%
1.71 OffsidesContext 2.14
11.00 Shots allowedContext 12.90
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
3.80 BlocksContext 4.10
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
60% Save rateContext 50%
53% PossessionIn forecast 59%
445 PassesContext 515
373 Accurate passesContext 426
84% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.72
10.80 FoulsContext 14.00
13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km312 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
  • W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel159 km194 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Freiburg 1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Nov5.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km159 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways312 km194 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one75.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Freiburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
0.67
1899 Hoffenheim · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentSC Freiburg1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 5–0 H W 2–1 A
SC Paderborn 07 W 1–0 A L 1–3 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 SC Freiburg wins3 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.60 Over 2.570% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 20%
  • 14 Feb 20261899 Hoffenheim3–0SC Freiburg
  • 28 Sep 2025SC Freiburg1–11899 Hoffenheim
  • 19 Apr 2025SC Freiburg3–21899 Hoffenheim
  • 8 Dec 20241899 Hoffenheim1–1SC Freiburg
  • 20 Jan 2024SC Freiburg3–21899 Hoffenheim
  • 19 Aug 20231899 Hoffenheim1–2SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SC Freiburg1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 2.501.83
Conceded per game 1.002.33
Match goals 3.504.17
Over 1.5 83%100%
Over 2.5 83%100%
Over 3.5 50%67%
Both teams scored 67%100%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games66
SC Freiburg1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 2.401.40
Conceded per game 1.402.30
Match goals 3.803.70
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 90%80%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC Freiburg1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won5.176.67
Corners conceded3.504.67
Match total8.6711.3410.72
Over 8.550% 3/6100% 6/6
Over 9.517% 1/683% 5/6
Over 10.517% 1/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards1.832.17
Opponent cards1.830.67
Match total3.662.843.51
Over 3.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
SC Freiburg1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won4.107.10
Corners conceded4.004.20
Match total8.1011.3010.72
Over 8.550% 5/10100% 10/10
Over 9.520% 2/1090% 9/10
Over 10.520% 2/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.402.70
Opponent cards2.201.40
Match total3.604.103.51
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
4 2 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim6 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
8 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München SC Paderborn 07 Dec 514:30 SC Freiburg 1899 Hoffenheim Dec 514:30 Bayer Leverkusen Borussia Mönchengladbach Dec 514:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Werder Bremen Dec 514:30 FC Augsburg 1.FC Köln Dec 514:30 RB Leipzig FSV Mainz 05 Dec 514:30 FC Schalke 04 Borussia Dortmund Dec 514:30 Union Berlin Hamburger SV Dec 514:30 SV Elversberg VfB Stuttgart Dec 514:30