Bundesliga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 29 · 14:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel494 kmRest days8 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
SC Freiburg—%
Draw—%
RB Leipzig—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SC FreiburgRB Leipzig
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
63 AttackIn forecast 76
73 DefenceIn forecast 53
78 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC FreiburgRB Leipzig
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 2.13
0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76
+0.63 Goals minus xGContext +0.54
100% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 50%
16.00 ShotsContext 17.67
5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
33% On target shareContext 37%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.67
63% Box shareContext 69%
16% ConversionContext 15%
1.33 OffsidesContext 1.25
9.17 Shots allowedContext 17.00
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
3.33 BlocksContext 4.00
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
64% Save rateContext 77%
53% PossessionIn forecast 53%
465 PassesContext 508
390 Accurate passesContext 441
84% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.06 Team ratingContext 7.11
9.50 FoulsContext 9.83
14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.92
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.88 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.50 ShotsContext 16.40
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
37% On target shareContext 36%
8.70 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
64% Box shareContext 69%
18% ConversionContext 13%
1.71 OffsidesContext 1.29
11.00 Shots allowedContext 14.20
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
3.80 BlocksContext 3.00
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
60% Save rateContext 69%
53% PossessionIn forecast 54%
445 PassesContext 508
373 Accurate passesContext 443
84% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.97
10.80 FoulsContext 9.30
13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km312 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
  • W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
  • W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts
RB Leipzig
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel494 km300 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Freiburg RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 21 Nov4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km494 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways312 km300 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one66

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Freiburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
0.67
RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
3.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentSC FreiburgRB Leipzig
Bayer Leverkusen L 1–2 A L 0–2 A
Eintracht Frankfurt D 2–2 A W 6–0 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 5–0 H W 3–0 H
Werder Bremen W 4–1 H L 1–3 A
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 SC Freiburg wins3 draws6 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.90 Over 2.550% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%
  • 16 May 2026SC Freiburg4–1RB Leipzig
  • 14 Jan 2026RB Leipzig2–0SC Freiburg
  • 8 Mar 2025SC Freiburg0–0RB Leipzig
  • 26 Oct 2024RB Leipzig3–1SC Freiburg
  • 6 Apr 2024SC Freiburg1–4RB Leipzig
  • 12 Nov 2023RB Leipzig3–1SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SC FreiburgRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 2.502.67
Conceded per game 1.001.83
Match goals 3.504.50
Over 1.5 83%100%
Over 2.5 83%83%
Over 3.5 50%67%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 33%50%
Failed to score 0%17%
Games66
SC FreiburgRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 2.402.10
Conceded per game 1.402.00
Match goals 3.804.10
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 90%80%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC FreiburgRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won5.175.50
Corners conceded3.506.83
Match total8.6712.3310.72
Over 8.550% 3/6100% 6/6
Over 9.517% 1/667% 4/6
Over 10.517% 1/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards1.831.00
Opponent cards1.831.50
Match total3.662.503.51
Over 3.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 4.533% 2/617% 1/6
SC FreiburgRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won4.104.80
Corners conceded4.005.70
Match total8.1010.5010.72
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.520% 2/1050% 5/10
Over 10.520% 2/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.401.30
Opponent cards2.201.30
Match total3.602.603.51
Over 3.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SC Freiburg6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 46-60
61-75
4 2 76-90
RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
8 2 16-30
3 4 31-45
4 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 3 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Borussia Mönchengladbach Nov 2719:30 FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin Nov 2814:30 Hamburger SV Bayern München Nov 2814:30 SC Paderborn 07 FC Schalke 04 Nov 2814:30 1.FC Köln SV Elversberg Nov 2814:30 VfB Stuttgart Eintracht Frankfurt Nov 2817:30 SC Freiburg RB Leipzig Nov 2914:30 1899 Hoffenheim FC Augsburg Nov 2916:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen Nov 2918:30