Bundesliga Gameweek 12 Sat, Dec 5 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel255 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Union Berlin—%
Draw—%
Hamburger SV—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Berlin)

Forecast from 20 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and Hamburger SV. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union BerlinHamburger SV
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 40
42 AttackIn forecast 37
41 DefenceIn forecast 43
38 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union BerlinHamburger SV
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
50% Scored inContext 50%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
12.83 ShotsContext 11.00
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
35% On target shareContext 33%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.33
64% Box shareContext 56%
7% ConversionContext 9%
2.60 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.67 Shots allowedContext 19.17
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67
4.20 BlocksContext 5.33
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
56% Save rateContext 62%
44% PossessionIn forecast 40%
359 PassesContext 346
268 Accurate passesContext 270
75% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.58 Team ratingContext 6.54
11.67 FoulsContext 14.17
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.11
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
70% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.30 ShotsContext 11.60
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
38% On target shareContext 35%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.90
63% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.50 Shots allowedContext 16.40
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
4.13 BlocksContext 4.56
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
57% Save rateContext 64%
45% PossessionIn forecast 40%
372 PassesContext 348
285 Accurate passesContext 275
77% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.71
10.30 FoulsContext 12.40
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km910 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
Hamburger SV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel255 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
  • W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
  • L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 28 Nov7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 28 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km255 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways910 km190 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo
37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe
15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentUnion BerlinHamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund D 0–0 H L 0–2 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Union Berlin wins1 draws1 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%
  • 14 Feb 2026Hamburger SV3–2Union Berlin
  • 28 Sep 2025Union Berlin0–0Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union BerlinHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 0.831.00
Conceded per game 2.832.50
Match goals 3.673.50
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 67%67%
Over 3.5 67%50%
Both teams scored 33%33%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games66
Union BerlinHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 1.501.30
Conceded per game 2.302.10
Match goals 3.803.40
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 80%40%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union BerlinHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.83
Corners conceded5.836.00
Match total9.839.8310.72
Over 8.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 10.533% 2/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards2.501.33
Opponent cards2.002.17
Match total4.503.503.51
Over 3.583% 5/650% 3/6
Over 4.533% 2/60% 0/6
Union BerlinHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.103.60
Corners conceded6.506.40
Match total10.6010.0010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 10.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.201.50
Opponent cards1.902.60
Match total4.104.103.51
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Hamburger SV6 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1 1 0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
2 1 0-15
5 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München SC Paderborn 07 Dec 514:30 SC Freiburg 1899 Hoffenheim Dec 514:30 Bayer Leverkusen Borussia Mönchengladbach Dec 514:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Werder Bremen Dec 514:30 FC Augsburg 1.FC Köln Dec 514:30 RB Leipzig FSV Mainz 05 Dec 514:30 FC Schalke 04 Borussia Dortmund Dec 514:30 Union Berlin Hamburger SV Dec 514:30 SV Elversberg VfB Stuttgart Dec 514:30