SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
8th · 34 pts · 25 played
WLWLD
0–1Full time
Union Berlin
11th · 28 pts · 25 played
DLWLL
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Union Berlin. SC Freiburg had 2.9 days of rest, Union Berlin 7 and had to travel 640 km.
Away travel640 kmRest days2.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
SC Freiburg55%
Draw24%
Union Berlin21%
SC Freiburg53%
Draw25%
Union Berlin22%
SC Freiburg53%
Draw25%
Union Berlin22%
SC Freiburg47%
Draw26%
Union Berlin27%
SC Freiburg54%
Draw25%
Union Berlin21%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 102
Team strength
SC FreiburgUnion Berlin
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
63
AttackIn forecast
42
73
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgUnion Berlin
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
72%
Scored inContext
72%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.24
ShotsContext
11.96
4.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
35%
On target shareContext
28%
8.77
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
66%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.80
13.48
Shots allowedContext
12.08
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.12
4.59
BlocksContext
3.57
2.96
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
65%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
396
PassesContext
314
322
Accurate passesContext
225
81%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.24
FoulsContext
12.28
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.08
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.12
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
34%
On target shareContext
26%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
68%
Box shareContext
76%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.67
15.10
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.56
BlocksContext
3.14
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
74%
Save rateContext
59%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
334
PassesContext
333
267
Accurate passesContext
238
80%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.63
8.70
FoulsContext
11.60
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,229 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel640 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 640 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,229 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
9L. Höler
22Cyriaque Irié
31I. Matanović
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
31Matheo Raab(G)
39D. Köhn
34S. Nsoki
5D. Doekhi
28C. Trimmel
9Livan Burcu
8R. Khedira
19J. Haberer
10Ilyas Ansah
21T. Skarke
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Union Berlin-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
2.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Union Berlin · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–6 A | D 2–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 33 of 72 · 1.38 per game | 27 of 72 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 SC Freiburg wins4 draws4 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.44
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 44%
- 1 Nov 2025Union Berlin0–0SC Freiburg
- 30 Mar 2025SC Freiburg1–2Union Berlin
- 8 Nov 2024Union Berlin0–0SC Freiburg
- 18 May 2024Union Berlin2–1SC Freiburg
- 13 Jan 2024SC Freiburg0–0Union Berlin
- 13 May 2023Union Berlin4–2SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 3.16 | 2.88 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 28% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| SC Freiburg | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.90 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 8.88 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 6/21 | 21% 5/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.32 | 4.72 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 13/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| SC Freiburg | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.70 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.20 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.72
Red cards0.11league 0.18
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls20.3league 20.5
Penalties0.18league 0.36
Home wins41%league 45%
SC Freiburg13 with this referee
Record4-5-4
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L22 Nov 25A · Bayern München2–60
- W26 Apr 25A · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- D8 Mar 25H · RB Leipzig0–00
- L14 Jan 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–41
- D8 Dec 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–11
Union Berlin9 with this referee
Record2-1-6
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- W21 Sep 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt4–34
- L15 Feb 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–20
- D14 Sep 24A · RB Leipzig0–03
- L20 Apr 24H · Bayern München1–50
- L16 Dec 23A · VfL Bochum0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg25 games · scored 37 · conceded 42
7
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
9
31-45
7
15
46-60
5
3
61-75
9
8
76-90
Union Berlin25 games · scored 30 · conceded 42
2
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
14
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
3
61-75
10
13
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
7
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
