Bundesliga Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 15 · 16:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 8th · 34 pts · 25 played
0–1Full time
Union Berlin 11th · 28 pts · 25 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
SC Freiburg54.7%fair odds 1.83
Draw24.2%fair odds 4.13
Union Berlin21.0%fair odds 4.75
Expected goals1.80 – 1.04total 2.84
Likeliest score1–111.5%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

SC Freiburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Union Berlin

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

SC Freiburg ↓ · Union Berlin →0123456+
06.45.53.11.10.30.10.0
19.911.55.72.00.50.10.0
29.59.85.11.80.50.10.0
35.75.93.11.10.30.10.0
42.62.71.40.50.10.00.0
50.91.00.50.20.00.00.0
6+0.40.40.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.5%8.69
  • 1–09.9%10.05
  • 2–19.8%10.15
  • 2–09.5%10.54
  • 0–06.4%15.59
  • 3–15.9%16.89
  • 3–05.7%17.53
  • 1–25.7%17.65
  • 0–15.5%18.26
  • 2–25.1%19.57

Winning margin

14.4% SC Freiburg by 3+ fair 6.96
17.0% SC Freiburg by 2 fair 5.89
23.4% SC Freiburg by 1 fair 4.27
24.2% Draw fair 4.13
13.2% Union Berlin by 1 fair 7.57
5.6% Union Berlin by 2 fair 17.78
2.2% Union Berlin by 3+ fair 45.42

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+

SC Freiburg goals

16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+

Union Berlin goals

35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
SC Freiburg win 54.7% 53.8% +1.0 pp
Draw 24.2% 24.8% -0.6 pp
Union Berlin win 21.0% 21.4% -0.3 pp
Over 2.5 54.0% 51.9% +2.1 pp
Both teams score 54.5% 53.1% +1.4 pp
Expected goals SC Freiburg 1.80 1.74 +0.06
Expected goals Union Berlin 1.04 1.01 +0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • SC Freiburg win54.7%1.83
  • Draw24.2%4.13
  • Union Berlin win21.0%4.75
  • Double chance SC Freiburg or draw79.0%1.27
  • Double chance SC Freiburg or Union Berlin75.8%1.32
  • Double chance Union Berlin or draw45.3%2.21
  • Draw no bet SC Freiburg72.2%1.38
  • Draw no bet Union Berlin27.8%3.60

Goals

  • Over 0.593.6%1.07
  • Over 1.578.2%1.28
  • Over 2.554.0%1.85
  • Over 3.531.7%3.15
  • Over 4.515.9%6.30
  • Under 1.521.8%4.58
  • Under 2.546.0%2.18
  • Under 3.568.3%1.46

Both teams to score

  • Yes54.5%1.83
  • No45.5%2.20
  • Yes and over 2.543.0%2.32
  • SC Freiburg win and yes25.7%3.89
  • Draw and yes17.8%5.62
  • Union Berlin win and yes11.0%9.11

Team goals

  • SC Freiburg over 0.583.5%1.20
  • SC Freiburg over 1.553.8%1.86
  • SC Freiburg over 2.527.0%3.70
  • Union Berlin over 0.564.6%1.55
  • Union Berlin over 1.527.8%3.60
  • Union Berlin over 2.58.7%11.45
  • SC Freiburg clean sheet35.4%2.82
  • Union Berlin clean sheet16.5%6.07
  • SC Freiburg win to nil29.0%3.45
  • Union Berlin win to nil10.1%9.94

Handicap

  • SC Freiburg −1.531.3%3.19
  • SC Freiburg −2.514.4%6.96
  • Union Berlin +1.568.7%1.46
  • Union Berlin +2.585.6%1.17
  • Union Berlin −1.57.8%12.78
  • SC Freiburg +1.592.2%1.08

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored232 Favourite won56.5% Avg chance given to result43.3% 1X2 Brier0.559 Over 2.5 called right60.8% BTTS called right56.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3138.3%38.7%
40–50%7045.0%42.9%
50–60%6455.2%62.5%
60–70%3864.5%71.1%
70–80%1974.2%73.7%
80%+1085.9%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 187 of 232 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55280.5475
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 232 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.