SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
8th · 27 pts · 20 played
WLDWL
1–0Full time
Werder Bremen
15th · 19 pts · 20 played
LDLLD
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Werder Bremen. SC Freiburg had 6 days of rest, Werder Bremen 7 and had to travel 569 km.
Away travel569 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
SC Freiburg51%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen24%
SC Freiburg53%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen22%
SC Freiburg51%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen24%
SC Freiburg43%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen30%
SC Freiburg50%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen24%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 69
Team strength
SC FreiburgWerder Bremen
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
63
AttackIn forecast
56
73
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgWerder Bremen
1.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
75%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.85
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.21
33%
On target shareContext
31%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
66%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.47
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.35
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.06
BlocksContext
3.70
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
65%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
412
PassesContext
466
338
Accurate passesContext
384
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.70
FoulsContext
9.80
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.15
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
70%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.70
ShotsContext
13.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
31%
On target shareContext
25%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
67%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.33
BlocksContext
3.20
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
79%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
394
PassesContext
467
323
Accurate passesContext
387
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.10
FoulsContext
10.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,157 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel569 km519 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 569 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,157 km | 519 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 7 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
37M. Rosenfelder
28M. Ginter
43B. Ogbus
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
44J. Manzambi
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
22J. Malatini
2O. Deman
20R. Schmid
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
3Y. Sugawara
9K. Topp
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Werder Bremen+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
2.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.22
Werder Bremen · Away
0.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–6 A | L 0–4 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 H | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game | 19 of 57 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 SC Freiburg wins0 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.14 – 0.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets71% · 0%
- 20 Sep 2025Werder Bremen0–3SC Freiburg
- 21 Feb 2025SC Freiburg5–0Werder Bremen
- 5 Oct 2024Werder Bremen0–1SC Freiburg
- 27 Jan 2024Werder Bremen3–1SC Freiburg
- 26 Aug 2023SC Freiburg1–0Werder Bremen
- 16 Apr 2023Werder Bremen1–2SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.55 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 55% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 45% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 40% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.31 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.37 | 11.57 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.65 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 3.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 11/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.88 | 9.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.76
Red cards0.22league 0.18
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 21.0
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins36%league 44%
SC Freiburg8 with this referee
Record2-5-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D19 Oct 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–22
- W12 Apr 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11
- L27 May 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–22
- D25 Jan 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- W13 Nov 22H · Union Berlin4–10
Werder Bremen2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L9 Mar 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–21
- L12 Mar 23H · Bayer Leverkusen2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg20 games · scored 31 · conceded 33
6
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
7
12
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
Werder Bremen20 games · scored 22 · conceded 38
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
8
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
9
61-75
10
10
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
