Bundesliga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 7 · 14:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
SC Freiburg 8th · 27 pts · 20 played
1–0Full time
Werder Bremen 15th · 19 pts · 20 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
SC Freiburg50.8%fair odds 1.97
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.99
Werder Bremen24.1%fair odds 4.15
Expected goals1.72 – 1.12total 2.83
Likeliest score1–111.9%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

SC Freiburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Werder Bremen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

SC Freiburg ↓ · Werder Bremen →0123456+
06.56.03.71.40.40.10.0
19.511.96.32.30.70.10.0
28.79.75.42.00.60.10.0
35.05.53.11.10.30.10.0
42.12.41.30.50.10.00.0
50.70.80.50.20.00.00.0
6+0.30.30.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.9%8.42
  • 2–19.7%10.33
  • 1–09.5%10.51
  • 2–08.7%11.53
  • 0–06.5%15.41
  • 1–26.3%15.90
  • 0–16.0%16.74
  • 3–15.5%18.06
  • 2–25.4%18.52
  • 3–05.0%20.15

Winning margin

12.3% SC Freiburg by 3+ fair 8.14
15.7% SC Freiburg by 2 fair 6.36
22.8% SC Freiburg by 1 fair 4.38
25.1% Draw fair 3.99
14.6% Werder Bremen by 1 fair 6.84
6.6% Werder Bremen by 2 fair 15.05
2.8% Werder Bremen by 3+ fair 35.13

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+

SC Freiburg goals

18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+

Werder Bremen goals

33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
SC Freiburg win 50.8% 49.9% +1.0 pp
Draw 25.1% 26.3% -1.2 pp
Werder Bremen win 24.1% 23.9% +0.3 pp
Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% +5.0 pp
Both teams score 55.7% 51.9% +3.9 pp
Expected goals SC Freiburg 1.72 1.59 +0.12
Expected goals Werder Bremen 1.12 1.03 +0.09

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • SC Freiburg win50.8%1.97
  • Draw25.1%3.99
  • Werder Bremen win24.1%4.15
  • Double chance SC Freiburg or draw75.9%1.32
  • Double chance SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen74.9%1.33
  • Double chance Werder Bremen or draw49.2%2.03
  • Draw no bet SC Freiburg67.8%1.47
  • Draw no bet Werder Bremen32.2%3.11

Goals

  • Over 0.593.5%1.07
  • Over 1.578.0%1.28
  • Over 2.553.8%1.86
  • Over 3.531.5%3.17
  • Over 4.515.7%6.36
  • Under 1.522.0%4.55
  • Under 2.546.2%2.16
  • Under 3.568.5%1.46

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.7%1.79
  • No44.3%2.26
  • Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
  • SC Freiburg win and yes24.5%4.07
  • Draw and yes18.6%5.38
  • Werder Bremen win and yes12.6%7.92

Team goals

  • SC Freiburg over 0.582.0%1.22
  • SC Freiburg over 1.551.2%1.95
  • SC Freiburg over 2.524.7%4.05
  • Werder Bremen over 0.567.2%1.49
  • Werder Bremen over 1.530.7%3.26
  • Werder Bremen over 2.510.3%9.73
  • SC Freiburg clean sheet32.8%3.05
  • Werder Bremen clean sheet18.0%5.56
  • SC Freiburg win to nil26.3%3.80
  • Werder Bremen win to nil11.5%8.71

Handicap

  • SC Freiburg −1.528.0%3.57
  • SC Freiburg −2.512.3%8.14
  • Werder Bremen +1.572.0%1.39
  • Werder Bremen +2.587.7%1.14
  • Werder Bremen −1.59.5%10.54
  • SC Freiburg +1.590.5%1.10

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored180 Favourite won56.1% Avg chance given to result43.0% 1X2 Brier0.564 Over 2.5 called right62.8% BTTS called right57.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2538.2%44.0%
40–50%5645.2%41.1%
50–60%5055.1%60.0%
60–70%2764.9%77.8%
70–80%1474.5%71.4%
80%+885.8%75.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 160 of 180 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55590.5528
Avg chance given to result43.4%43.0%
Favourite won57.5%57.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 160 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 180 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.