SC Paderborn 07
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Paderborn 07
12th · 4 pts · 4 played
DLLW
0–2Full time
VfB Stuttgart
15th · 3 pts · 4 played
LWLL
SC Paderborn 0730.5%fair odds 3.28
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.01
VfB Stuttgart44.6%fair odds 2.24
Expected goals1.36 – 1.68total 3.04
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Paderborn 07 ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Paderborn 07 goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.70
- 1–29.2%10.89
- 0–17.4%13.42
- 2–17.4%13.47
- 0–26.8%14.81
- 2–26.2%16.01
- 1–05.9%16.92
- 0–05.3%18.69
- 1–35.2%19.41
- 2–04.4%22.67
Winning margin
4.8%
SC Paderborn 07 by 3+
fair 20.67
8.9%
SC Paderborn 07 by 2
fair 11.23
16.8%
SC Paderborn 07 by 1
fair 5.96
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.01
20.9%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.79
13.6%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 7.34
10.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 9.96
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
SC Paderborn 07 goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 30.5% | 30.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.2% | -0.3 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 44.6% | 43.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 57.7% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.1% | 60.4% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals SC Paderborn 07 | 1.36 | 1.35 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.68 | 1.65 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Paderborn 07 win30.5%3.28
- Draw24.9%4.01
- VfB Stuttgart win44.6%2.24
- Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or draw55.4%1.80
- Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or VfB Stuttgart75.1%1.33
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw69.5%1.44
- Draw no bet SC Paderborn 0740.6%2.46
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart59.4%1.68
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.3%1.23
- Over 2.558.6%1.71
- Over 3.536.2%2.76
- Over 4.519.2%5.21
- Under 1.518.7%5.35
- Under 2.541.4%2.42
- Under 3.563.8%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes61.1%1.64
- No38.9%2.57
- Yes and over 2.549.6%2.02
- SC Paderborn 07 win and yes17.3%5.79
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes24.2%4.13
Team goals
- SC Paderborn 07 over 0.574.3%1.35
- SC Paderborn 07 over 1.539.4%2.54
- SC Paderborn 07 over 2.515.7%6.37
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.581.4%1.23
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.550.1%1.99
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.523.8%4.20
- SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet18.6%5.38
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet25.7%3.90
- SC Paderborn 07 win to nil13.2%7.55
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil20.3%4.92
Handicap
- SC Paderborn 07 −1.513.7%7.28
- SC Paderborn 07 −2.54.8%20.67
- VfB Stuttgart +1.586.3%1.16
- VfB Stuttgart +2.595.2%1.05
- VfB Stuttgart −1.523.7%4.22
- SC Paderborn 07 +1.576.3%1.31
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right78.4%
BTTS called right62.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 43.3% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.8% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 37 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5750 | 0.5913 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 51.4% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 37 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen72·17·12
- ✗SC Paderborn 07 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim35·24·40
- ✗FC Schalke 04 0–0 SV Elversberg47·24·29
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 RB Leipzig50·22·28
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia Dortmund33·23·44
- ✓Hamburger SV 2–1 1.FC Köln42·25·33
- ✗Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC Freiburg34·24·41
- ✓Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 FSV Mainz 0534·24·42
- ✗Werder Bremen 3–2 FC Augsburg33·24·43
- ✓Bayern München 7–0 Union Berlin91·6·3
Pre-match forecasts only. 1 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.