Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sat, Oct 10 · 14:30 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
SC Paderborn 07 12th · 4 pts · 4 played
0–2Full time
VfB Stuttgart 15th · 3 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SC Paderborn 07. SC Paderborn 07 had 19.8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 20.9 and had to travel 328 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel328 kmRest days19.8 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
SC Paderborn 0731%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart45%
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.68
SC Paderborn 0728%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart47%
Expected goals 1.15 – 1.56
SC Paderborn 0731%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart45%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.68
SC Paderborn 0724%
Draw22%
VfB Stuttgart53%
Expected goals 1.21 – 1.89
SC Paderborn 0732%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart44%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.65
Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paderborn)
14°CLight rain
  • Precipitation 0.5 mm
  • Wind 20 km/h
  • Humidity 65%
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
  • Cards per match 4.8
  • Penalties per match 0.30
  • Matches 138

Team strength

SC Paderborn 07VfB Stuttgart
39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
34 AttackIn forecast 70
33 DefenceIn forecast 58
45 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—
Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Paderborn 07VfB Stuttgart
0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25
0.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.82
1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.76
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.32
25% Scored inContext 75%
25% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.75 ShotsContext 15.25
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
17% On target shareContext 36%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.75
52% Box shareContext 70%
6% ConversionContext 10%
1.25 OffsidesContext 1.75
18.50 Shots allowedContext 18.00
4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
7.50 BlocksContext 5.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75
74% Save rateContext 63%
47% PossessionIn forecast 53%
446 PassesContext 488
360 Accurate passesContext 399
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.98
9.75 FoulsContext 9.75
10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.66
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.37
+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.34
60% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.40 ShotsContext 15.10
4.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
29% On target shareContext 35%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.80
63% Box shareContext 65%
9% ConversionContext 13%
1.43 OffsidesContext 2.11
14.20 Shots allowedContext 16.30
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
4.56 BlocksContext 5.22
3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
76% Save rateContext 62%
49% PossessionIn forecast 52%
440 PassesContext 468
355 Accurate passesContext 388
81% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.91 Team ratingContext 6.95
10.80 FoulsContext 9.60
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Paderborn 07
Rest19.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 4 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts
  • D29 AugA · FSV Mainz 050–00.9 xPts
VfB Stuttgart
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel328 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Viking3–12.6 xPts
  • W4 SepH · 1.FC Köln4–12.1 xPts
  • L28 AugA · Bayern München1–50.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Paderborn 07 VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match19.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Sep20.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km328 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one74.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Paderborn 07 Confirmed XI
3-5-2
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst
23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 5S. Castañeda 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda
30S. Marino 18M. Pieringer
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
41D. Seimen(G)
7M. Mittelstädt 24J. Chabot 3R. Hendriks
10C. Führich 6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor 4J. Vagnoman
26D. Undav 18J. Leweling
9E. Demirović
+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Paderborn 07 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −2.0% · Defence line −1.3% of weighted minutes
  • MID S. Klaas Rotation 6.76
4 without recent minutes (no impact): T. Gayret, M. Hoffmeier, N. Awortwie-Grant, L. Eickel
VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −4.9% · Defence line −4.1% of weighted minutes
  • MID N. Nartey Rotation 6.80
  • ATT Tiago Tomás Rotation 6.71
  • DEF L. Jaquez Rotation 6.69
  • DEF A. Al Dakhil Depth 6.39
  • DEF D. Zagadou Depth 7.30
1 without recent minutes (no impact): J. Diehl
Total impact vs full squads
  • SC Paderborn 07+0.3 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • VfB Stuttgart-0.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SC Paderborn 07 · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.00
VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentSC Paderborn 07VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim W 3–1 H L 1–2 A
Borussia Dortmund L 0–3 A L 0–1 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SC Paderborn 07VfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 0.751.50
Conceded per game 1.252.25
Match goals 2.003.75 3.04
Over 1.5 50%75%
Over 2.5 50%75% 59%
Over 3.5 25%50%
Both teams scored 25%75% 61%
Clean sheets 25%0%
Failed to score 75%25%
Games44
SC Paderborn 07VfB StuttgartForecast
Scored per game 0.752.00
Conceded per game 1.252.10
Match goals 2.004.10 3.04
Over 1.5 50%90%
Over 2.5 50%80% 59%
Over 3.5 25%70%
Both teams scored 25%90% 61%
Clean sheets 25%0%
Failed to score 75%10%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC Paderborn 07VfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.50
Corners conceded6.756.00
Match total10.7512.5010.89
Over 8.5100% 4/475% 3/4
Over 9.575% 3/475% 3/4
Over 10.550% 2/475% 3/4
Cards
Cards1.501.50
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total3.004.003.61
Over 3.525% 1/475% 3/4
Over 4.525% 1/425% 1/4
SC Paderborn 07VfB StuttgartLeague
Corners
Corners won5.306.20
Corners conceded4.105.80
Match total9.4012.0010.89
Over 8.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 9.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 10.530% 3/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.001.30
Opponent cards2.302.00
Match total4.303.303.61
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 138 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.66league 3.54
Red cards0.16league 0.08
Cards 5+54%league 22%
Fouls22.0league 22.4
Penalties0.30league 0.16
Home wins44%league 51%
SC Paderborn 071 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W25 May 26H · VfL Wolfsburg2–13
VfB Stuttgart11 with this referee
Record5-2-4 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against4 · 3
  • W22 Mar 26A · FC Augsburg5–23
  • W10 Jan 26A · Bayer Leverkusen4–12
  • W26 Oct 25H · FSV Mainz 052–13
  • W18 Jan 25H · SC Freiburg4–05
  • L10 Nov 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

SC Paderborn 074 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
VfB Stuttgart4 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
2 3 0-15
4 4 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Borussia Dortmund Werder Bremen 22 FSV Mainz 05 Bayer Leverkusen 34 1899 Hoffenheim Hamburger SV 23 FC Augsburg Bayern München 22 Union Berlin SV Elversberg 10 SC Paderborn 07 VfB Stuttgart 02 RB Leipzig Eintracht Frankfurt 60 1.FC Köln Borussia Mönchengladbach 21 SC Freiburg FC Schalke 04 21