Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fulham were slight favourites.
Fulham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 52). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Sunderland had 10.7 days of rest, Fulham 10.8 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days10.7 · 10.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sunderland32%
Draw26%
Fulham42%
Sunderland35%
Draw27%
Fulham38%
Sunderland33%
Draw26%
Fulham40%
Sunderland25%
Draw25%
Fulham50%
Sunderland32%
Draw27%
Fulham41%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 140
Team strength
Sunderland
Fulham
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
62
AttackIn forecast
66
59
DefenceIn forecast
68
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandFulham
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
62%
Scored inContext
81%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
9.69
ShotsContext
12.00
3.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.84
33%
On target shareContext
31%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.12
70%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.85
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.46
Shots allowedContext
11.81
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.12
4.54
BlocksContext
3.42
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
72%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
376
PassesContext
479
299
Accurate passesContext
403
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.96
FoulsContext
10.92
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.31
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
31%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
71%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.50
BlocksContext
3.20
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
59%
Save rateContext
62%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
418
PassesContext
529
340
Accurate passesContext
455
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.70
FoulsContext
10.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest10.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fulham
Rest10.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel387 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Fulham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.7Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb | 10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
10N. Angulo
28E. Le Fée
19M. Diarra
37J. T. Bi
9B. Brobbey
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
30K. Sessegnon
3C. Bassey
5J. Andersen
2K. Tete
17A. Iwobi
16S. Berge
22Kevin
32E. Smith Rowe
8H. Wilson
7R. Jiménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fulham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-1.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Fulham+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-1
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 0.77
Fulham · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.85
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Burnley | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| West Ham | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Brentford | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Tottenham | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester City | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 AL 4–5 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Brighton | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 36 of 75 · 1.44 per game | 31 of 75 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sunderland wins0 draws1 Fulham wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 22 Nov 2025Fulham1–0Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.19 | 2.88 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 58% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 62% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 19% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Sunderland | Fulham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 4.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 5.62 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 10.27 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 12/26 | 77% 20/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 10/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 13/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 11/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Sunderland | Fulham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 9.90 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 140 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 3.74
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+39%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 21.4
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins41%league 42%
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Nov 25H · Arsenal2–22
- W7 Dec 24H · Stoke City2–10
- L18 Oct 22A · Blackburn0–23
Fulham8 with this referee
Record1-3-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D4 Jan 26H · Liverpool2–21
- L2 Dec 25H · Manchester City4–50
- W13 Sep 25H · Leeds1–01
- L14 Jan 25A · West Ham2–33
- L21 Apr 24H · Liverpool1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland26 games · scored 27 · conceded 30
1
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
8
7
61-75
7
5
76-90
Fulham26 games · scored 35 · conceded 40
5
0-15
2
9
16-30
6
7
31-45
5
11
46-60
6
2
61-75
11
11
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
9
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
