Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Tondela had 6 days of rest, Casa Pia 8.1 and had to travel.
Rest days6 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Tondela39%
Draw28%
Casa Pia33%
Tondela40%
Draw27%
Casa Pia33%
Tondela39%
Draw28%
Casa Pia33%
Tondela32%
Draw28%
Casa Pia39%
Tondela40%
Draw27%
Casa Pia33%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Tondela
Casa Pia
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
16
AttackIn forecast
13
29
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaCasa Pia
0.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
36%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.64
ShotsContext
7.86
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.08
32%
On target shareContext
34%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
4.23
58%
Box shareContext
54%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.92
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.29
Shots allowedContext
13.07
5.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
3.38
BlocksContext
3.57
4.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
73%
Save rateContext
57%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
314
PassesContext
330
249
Accurate passesContext
254
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.68
14.21
FoulsContext
14.36
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
15.43
2.86
Yellow cardsContext
3.14
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
40%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
7.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
35%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
57%
Box shareContext
57%
5%
ConversionContext
16%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.90
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.40
BlocksContext
3.20
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
78%
Save rateContext
55%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
321
PassesContext
331
253
Accurate passesContext
256
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.70
15.40
FoulsContext
14.70
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,349 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Casa Pia
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,349 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
4Christian Marques
5João Afonso
48Tiago Manso
17Ivan Cavaleiro
97Cicero
32Juan Rodríguez
7Pedro Henryque
29J. Siebatcheu
79Hugo Félix
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
33Ricardo Batista(G)
5A. Conté
43David Sousa
6José Fonte
18André Geraldes
42S. Pérez
29J. Livolant
74Renato Nhaga
20Y. Oukili
72Gaizka Larrazabal
10Dailon Livramento
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-4
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.50
Casa Pia · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | L 3–5 H |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 A | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 9 of 36 · 0.75 per game | 7 of 36 · 0.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.57 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.79 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 3.00 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 64% | 43% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Tondela | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.79 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.15 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 5.43 | 6.14 | 5.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 93% 13/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Tondela | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.50 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.60 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.30 | 6.40 | 5.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.25league 5.17
Red cards0.00league 0.31
Cards 5+75%league 62%
Fouls24.3league 27.4
Penalties0.50league 0.45
Home wins25%league 37%
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
Casa PiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela14 games · scored 8 · conceded 25
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
8
76-90
Casa Pia13 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
2
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
