Tondela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Tondela38.9%fair odds 2.57
Draw28.5%fair odds 3.51
Casa Pia32.6%fair odds 3.07
Expected goals1.30 – 1.17total 2.47
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Tondela ↓ · Casa Pia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Tondela goals, columns Casa Pia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.38
- 1–010.3%9.67
- 0–19.2%10.85
- 0–09.2%10.92
- 2–18.4%11.95
- 1–27.5%13.31
- 2–07.2%13.96
- 0–25.8%17.31
- 2–24.9%20.47
- 3–13.6%27.57
Winning margin
6.3%
Tondela by 3+
fair 15.97
11.6%
Tondela by 2
fair 8.65
21.1%
Tondela by 1
fair 4.74
28.5%
Draw
fair 3.51
18.9%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 5.29
9.3%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 10.73
4.4%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 22.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Tondela goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Casa Pia goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela win | 38.9% | 39.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.2% | +1.3 pp |
| Casa Pia win | 32.6% | 33.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 50.1% | -5.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.8% | 55.0% | -4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Tondela | 1.30 | 1.41 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 1.17 | 1.26 | -0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Tondela win38.9%2.57
- Draw28.5%3.51
- Casa Pia win32.6%3.07
- Double chance Tondela or draw67.4%1.48
- Double chance Tondela or Casa Pia71.5%1.40
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw61.1%1.64
- Draw no bet Tondela54.4%1.84
- Draw no bet Casa Pia45.6%2.20
Goals
- Over 0.590.8%1.10
- Over 1.571.3%1.40
- Over 2.544.8%2.23
- Over 3.523.6%4.24
- Over 4.510.5%9.56
- Under 1.528.7%3.48
- Under 2.555.2%1.81
- Under 3.576.4%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes50.8%1.97
- No49.2%2.03
- Yes and over 2.537.3%2.68
- Tondela win and yes17.0%5.89
- Draw and yes19.3%5.17
- Casa Pia win and yes14.5%6.90
Team goals
- Tondela over 0.572.8%1.37
- Tondela over 1.537.3%2.68
- Tondela over 2.514.3%6.99
- Casa Pia over 0.568.9%1.45
- Casa Pia over 1.532.6%3.07
- Casa Pia over 2.511.4%8.80
- Tondela clean sheet31.1%3.21
- Casa Pia clean sheet27.2%3.67
- Tondela win to nil22.0%4.56
- Casa Pia win to nil18.1%5.53
Handicap
- Tondela −1.517.8%5.61
- Tondela −2.56.3%15.97
- Casa Pia +1.582.2%1.22
- Casa Pia +2.593.7%1.07
- Casa Pia −1.513.7%7.31
- Tondela +1.586.3%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored130
Favourite won57.7%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.550
Over 2.5 called right61.5%
BTTS called right54.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 37.7% | 36.4% |
| 40–50% | 48 | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.1% | 59.3% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 66.3% | 86.7% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 75.4% | 73.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 101 of 130 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5484 | 0.5271 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.3% | 45.5% |
| Favourite won | 58.4% | 58.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 101 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 130 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.